A few months ago I created a thread asking users to set some benchmarks for Ryan Tannehill. http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?76078-Let-s-set-some-Benchmarks-for-Ryan-Tannehill Now the season is here so it's time to start tracking Tannehill's numbers, much like we did last year. Feel free to focus on whatever metrics you want. I'll be paying close attention to his TD/INT ratio and hoping for many more multiple TD games. 12 TDs is not going to cut it in the NFL. To put things in perspective, Peyton Manning threw for over half that amount in 1 game. But there are many other stats to track - QBR, completion percentage, Yards per attempt, etc. Here's hoping Tannehill gets off to a good start tomorrow! We can revisit this thread after every game. Edited to add: 3/0 TD/INT in the preseason is a real good sign of things to come I hope.
How did Ted Ginn Jr. become the 2008 survivor champion?? We draft a glorified punt returner with the 9th over-all pick in 2007 and you guys voted him survivor champ in 2008???? Oh man, be happy I didn't find you in 2007 when we drafted that bum. I bet there was a party going on around here Huh?? Ted Ginn Jr. YAH BABY kinda Party ! You guys are such homers...I mean that with love. Anyhow, for me, it's Wins and Losses. RT and the offense has the defense on the otherside of the ball to win games. I don't care what his numbers are, just do enough to win. You want to be a great QB, you can start by taking this team to the playoffs. You want to turn your doubters into supporters, win the division. Make the right decisions in the right situations and do what it takes to win. If thats throwing for 400 yards one game, then throw for 400 yards. if thats throwing for 120 and taking care of the ball, then be smart and do that. JUST WIN BABY ! Go Dolphins!!
I'll be comparing his #'s to Aaron Rodgers, a great quarterback in a similar offensive design. Specifically focusing on downfield accuracy (0 to 9 yards, 10 to 19 yards, 20 plus) in each segment. Also be looking at pressure #'s he gets vs AR. It's a benchmark. Lets look at 2012 as a comparison between the two... Aaron Rodgers 624 attempts 25 throw aways 5 hit as threw 6 batted passes 49 drops 483 plays with no pressure with QBR of 111.9 141 plays under pressure with QBR of 89.4 89% behind line of scrimmage, 76 of 85 for 475 yards, 1 td's and no int's 79% 0 to 9 yards, 240 of 303 for 2,151 yards, 16 td's and 3 int's 58% 10 to 19 yards, 73 of 125 for 1,220 yards, 13 td's and 3 int's 43% 20 plus yards, 31 of 72 for 980 yards, 12 td's and 3 int Ryan Tannehill 484 attempts 20 throw aways 8 hits as threw 13 batted passes 36 drops 362 plays with no pressure with QBR of 78.6 122 plays under pressure with QBR of 68.6 76% behind line of scrimmage, 35 of 46 for 233 yards, no td's and no int's 71% 0 to 9 yards, 167 of 236 for 1,438 yards, 6 td's and 6 int's 56% 10 to 19 yards, 60 of 108 for 952 yards, 3 td's and 6 int's 39% 20 plus yards, 20 of 51 for 671 yards, 3 td's and 1 int Rodgers completed 11 more passes over 20 yards and he had 9 more touchdowns. I mean their completion percentages in that zone are relatively close 43% to 39%. If this isn't an indication of the disparity in the quality of wide receivers between the two groups in 2012, I'm not sure what is. Conversely, the #'s between 0 and 19 yards IMO would have more to do with decision making and ball accuracy than the lack of quality at wide receiver. Rodgers attempted 84 more passes in this zone but Tannehill threw 6 more interceptions. Lets see how the gap closes in 2013 with a better supporting cast around Ryan. I'm expecting significant progress. But I'm not expecting Aaron Rodgers.... yet.
Stats in general for a QB are difficult to decipher. Somebody has got to catch the ball. That said, the stats I like to look at for QBs is yards per attempt & QBR. NFL.com's QBR is ok, but not as good as ESPN's QBR since ESPN's take into account the situation. An 8 yard completion on 3rd & 6 is better than an 8 yard completion on 1st & 20, or 3rd & 9. Last year's ESPN QBR has Tannehil at 19. I don't believe this to be totally accurate, but I do believe it's good enough for comparison purposes. RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR 1 Peyton Manning, DEN 84.1 2 Tom Brady, NE 77.1 3 Colin Kaepernick, SF 76.8 4 Matt Ryan, ATL 74.5 5 Aaron Rodgers, GB 72.5 6 Robert Griffin III, WSH 71.4 7 Alex Smith, SF 70.1 8 Russell Wilson, SEA 69.6 9 Drew Brees, NO 67.9 10 Eli Manning, NYG 67.4 RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR 11 Andrew Luck, IND 65 12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 62.8 13 Tony Romo, DAL 62.7 14 Matt Schaub, HOU 62.6 15 Matthew Stafford, DET 58.9 16 Cam Newton, CAR 54.2 17 Christian Ponder, MIN 53.8 18 Josh Freeman, TB 53.1 19 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 52.3 20 Jay Cutler, CHI 51.9 RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR 21 Sam Bradford, STL 51.6 22 Andy Dalton, CIN 50.7 23 Matt Hasselbeck, TEN 48.5 24 Jake Locker, TEN 48.1 25 Joe Flacco, BAL 46.8 26 Michael Vick, PHI 46 27 Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF 45.8 28 Nick Foles, PHI 45.3 29 Carson Palmer, OAK 44.7 30 Blaine Gabbert, JAC 40.9 RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR 31 Philip Rivers, SD 40.6 32 Matt Cassel, KC 36.5 33 Chad Henne, JAC 29.9 34 Brady Quinn, KC 27.4 35 Brandon Weeden, CLE 26.6 36 Mark Sanchez, NYJ 23.4 Comparison wise it says Tannehill is roughly equivalent to Josh Freeman & Jay Cutler. He's marginally better than Bradford or Dalton, marginally worse than Stafford & Newton, much better than Flacco & Palmer, not nearly as good as Wilson or Brees.... That's pretty much how I saw him last season.
I don't care for ESPN's QBR as IMO it includes team measures rather than just QB metrics. For example, if the D gives up a TD after an INT the QB's QBR is worse than if the D stops the opponent. In each situation the QB did the exact same thing. His QBR should be the same. Although I do believe that RT's ESPN QBR will benefit from the expected quality of our defense this year.
That's an interesting statistical list. Tannehill's OC is Mike Sherman... so, Sherman's bias is obvious when he stated that Tannehill would be the NFL's most improved QB this season (or, something to that effect). However, according to those stats... it very well should be Brandon Weeden. Tannehill will improve, I have no doubt. But, Weeden has so much room for improvement, the NFL could see a Jekyll/Hyde type of transformation in him. We shall see tomorrow, eh?
It's not NFL.com's QBR. It's QBR. It's also a much better predictor of winning. ESPN's QBR has a retroactive element to it. If you pay attention, it is calculated after the game. That's because, for example, if the other team takes possession after an INT and scores, the INT hurts the opposing QB's rating a lot. If they go 3 and out, it hurts much less. It retroactively assigns a rating based on strange variables. Not to mention the 'clutchness' of a throw can add more weight. A 75 yard touchdown pass is worth more if it takes the lead in the fourth quarter than if it adds to a 7 point lead in the second. Simply put, it isn't a statistic. It's a value judgement.
I still get QBR mixed up with passer rating. People can track whichever they prefer. I think in the thread I started back in April we set benchmarks for both. What I hope this thread doesn't become is a thread where people spin the numbers to excuse poor QB play; or the flipside, which would be using the numbers to unfairly crucify Tannehill. We should try and remain objective as much as possible. I know that's really hard for all of us when it comes to Miami Dolphins QBs.
And in Peyton's 2nd NFL season, he didn't get to 7 TDs until game 3, and it wasn't until game 7 that he finally had a game without an interception. He had 7 TDs/5 Ints off his first 3 games. I agree that 12 TDs on the season won't cut it, but pointing to Manning's HISTORIC night is not putting things into perspective as far as Tannehill is concerned.
He either has it or he doesn't in my opinion, and he has this season to prove it. If not I think Pat Devlin should get a chance. After that, we go back to the draft. It's that simple. I want to see him win games for us. Getting those hollow Jay Fiedler type of wins aren't going to do it either for me. He has to show me that he can carry this team when it needs to be carried, and he has to make the right choices at crucial moments in games. Chad Henne would go 22-27, 300 yards, 2 tds in a game and then throw a pick in the red zone with 1:34 remaining in a close game....Tannehill can't do that, or it's back to where we were yet again. If he's a franchise QB, he'll show us that or it's on to the next man, and call me crazy but i'm all about Pat Devlin getting a look if Tannehill stinks the joint up early on in the season. I don't fully believe in RT just yet and I wont until I see him come out and just kill a defense the way guys like Matt Ryan do. As far as numbers go which I presume is what this topic is about...I know nothing of QBR or how it's determined but just going with an old fashioned look at season stats after game 16 this year. 4,400 yards passing 27 td's 10 ints I know that is asking a lot out of him but those are franchise QB numbers. 2805 yards passing 13 td's 12 ints Those are backup QB passing numbers.
Those are franchise QB numbers but it's unrealistic to expect that in year 2. If that were your expectation then you would have cut Brady, either of the Mannings, Brees, etc. In fact, outside of Marino, I can't think of a QB that would have met your stat standard.
Cam Newton did that in his rookie season, I think in todays game it can be done. I know those are high numbers but I just really want to see him cement his status as our franchise QB, but yeah....those projections are probably too high. I have high hopes for him though.
Cam Newton didn't throw for 4,400 yds and was like 21 passing TDs and 17 INTs. Big difference between 27/10 and 21/17.
Yeah, I looked it up after that post and Newton has never had numbers like he claimed in his first or second year. His TD/INT 21/17 and 19/12 and his yardage went from 4051 to 3869. Explosion's numbers simply aren't reasonable. In fact, they're closer to Sapp's "bold" prediction than a reasonable expectation.
Good QBs do enough to win the game. Stats vary b/c sometimes winning requires lighting up the scoreboard and sometimes it calls for managing the game and avoiding mistakes. Being efficient is the one constant and that's what I want to see from RT this season.
I wasn't trying to suggest Tannehill should be able to duplicate Peyton's historic night. Or even play at the level of the NFL's best QBs at this stage. What I meant by putting things in perspective is that it shows how far he is off pace when a guy like Peyton can get over half way to his total from last year in one game. 12 TDs in one season is awful no matter what lenses you're looking through when the player started 16 games.
In year 2, Matt Ryan threw for 2,916 yards, 22 TDs & 14 INTs. His rookie year: 3,440 yards 11 TDs 17 Ints & that was with Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, & a good Michael Turner. You don't have a Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, or a Michael Turner.
Peyton's total from last game is also 1/3rd of a reasonable TD total from a young QB. Like I said, it doesn't show perspective in regards to how off the pace another QB is IMO, it shows perspective on how ridiculous Peyton's night was.
So a young QB should have 21 TDs in one game? I know what you meant, just had to give ya some crap Ya his night was insane...can't compare that to anything rationally normal in any way.
Tannehill's day overall looked better than the numbers showed, although the numbers were decent. Starting the season with a 1/1 TD/INT ratio isn't terrible, especially when the team gets a win. If he keeps playing like he did today the multiple TD games will come.
Being that his running game went 23 rushes for 20 yards and having to put the entire offense on his shoulders with Jerry doing his best impersonation of a turnstile. I'd say he did OK. pocket awareness could be better though. But I'm confident it will progress Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
I'd say he had a very good game, not great, but very good. I know he'd love to have that INT pass back. That LB that tipped it had him pegged. And one of the sacks he took was because he moved up into the defender when the pressure behind him wasn't really there yet. Don't know how you fix that besides better O line play. Aside from that I was very happy with his performance.
I've been saying that my expectation was 4000 yards, 22/12, but really the yardage total isn't that important to me. Today's yardage total would put RT on pace for almost 4500, but I hope our running game isn't this dreadful all year. I think a better reflection of my expectations is that RT does enough to win at least 9 games. I still want a 22/12 TD/INT ratio though. As dominant as our D looked, I'm not hoping for RT to put in a Trent Dilfer level performance where the wins are the result of the D. My expectation is that RT increasingly shows he can carry the team. I thought that RT carried the team to potential wins three times last season. He only got credit for one win though b/c Carp missed some very make-able FGs.
Tanehill is improved but I'm not sure if we can anoint him a franchise, top 10 QB just yet.. As I watched guys like Kap, Wilson and Luck today, I wondered if Tanny could ever reach those levels.. Interested to see how RG3 plays tomorrow. I didn't like some of the sacks he took and once again would like to see him running a bit more and playing outside the pocket. Don't understand why we don't roll him out more often.
CKap is a freak of nature...I watched that game and that kid is sick good...he's a one in a thousand talent, no question. In the end, I don't think Tannehill is anywhere in his league, but did you see how well protected he was overall? That O-line was on their s***. I don't see Tannehill below the other two guys there, pretty much in the same realm imo. RG3's skillset and game are way different than Tannehill's, I don't think comparing those two is equitable.
Be a couple more seasons before Tannehill has the same level of experience though. He is still the most inexperienced of the lot the young QBs, excluding the new bills and stej guys. Let's give him another season or two and see how he compares.
Ya I expect to have a clear picture of what he's going to be like in the future by the end of this season...either way...right now, I like it.
I don't think Kaepernick is as good as you are painting him. He does have great physical tools, no question, however IMHO him looking this good has A LOT to do with Harbaugh being just an incredible coach and quarterback manager, and also a lot to do with that team just being stacked top to bottom. I think any QB with good physical tools that you put in that team is going to look incredible. Not saying Kaep is bad, far from it, he is a very good young QB, however Harbaugh and that team is making him look elite, when he isn't.
Well to be fair, Tannehill threw a pick 6 in the Jets game that put them in a terrible situation. Carpenter still should have made the kick but anytime your QB throws a pick 6 it's hard to remove all blame from him in a losing effort. I'm not sure if that's one of the games you're referring to, but other than that I agree with everything else. I also agree with whoever talked about the nonexistent running game. It makes Ryan's effort today even more impressive.
The drops by Clay and Gibson hurt...brought down his rating to 82.4. I really enjoyed Tannehills play in the 3rd and 4th quarter. When the chips were down, he was money. His second half QBR was probably over 100 and the TD pass to Hartline was perfect. I could see the focus on his face so that's pretty mature to be sacked 4 times and still play mistake free ball. True, the Int took points off the board in the first half because he was leading a pretty good drive, but I hope he continues to have great second halfs.
SF's WRs aren't anything to write home about. They have a great TE though. If they stack that team with some WRs watchout. I like today's performance. 1/1 or 2/1 all the same. If they pass instead of letting DT leap than he'd have 2/1 likely. It is what it is. Get a few multiple TD games. Get a few no-INT games and we're good.
Can someone explain to me why there are 192 posts about Mike Wallace and only 15 about Tannehill's performance after the game? Tannehill carried our offense yesterday. With no running game and poor blocking overall... he took the team down the field even though the defense knew he was passing it. And on the most important drive... he was nearly perfect picking appart the defense taking us down for a score... racking up a "kill" in Omar's famous score chart. We have a QB that can legitimently carry us for stretchs of a game... something we honestly havent had in over a decade (maybe a little of Pennington?). Why isnt his performance being focused on?
Nobody disagrees. Do you really want a lot of posts that say, "yep" or "ditto". Controversy means discussion. Sent from my SGH-T959V using Tapatalk 2
So, there cant be discussion without controversy? We cant discuss things that we liked seeing from him? Discuss things he's seemed to improve upon from last season? Discuss things that he still needs to improve upon? Discuss how great it is to possibly having a true franchise QB? etc?
