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Dwayne Bowe in 2013?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by ckparrothead, Jul 2, 2012.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    There's some noise being made out there because Vontae Davis, Chad Johnson and Dwayne Bowe started kidding around on Twitter about Dwayne joining the Dolphins.

    I don't care much about that. Vontae and Chad openly pandered for Percy Harvin as well, and not only does that have about no chance of happening, I personally would view that as a mistake anyway.

    What does interest me is the fact that as Vontae alluded to, Dwayne did tell him privately that he would like to take his talents to South Beach. Then to top it off, Bowe publicly confirmed it on Twitter. Vontae said something to Chad Johnson that they need to get up there and help Dwayne pack to come to Miami, and Dwayne replied to them "omw" (which means 'on my way'). It's not exactly all that surprising or a big stretch for Dwayne to want to play in Miami. He grew up there. He went to Miami-Norland. But it is a significant confirmation, in my opinion.

    It's significant because when you put together the full set of circumstances, this could actually happen...in 2013.

    1. As alluded to, Bowe seems to want to be in Miami. There's a rocky history between him and KC and I can understand if he's itching to move on, even though Romeo Crennel is now the Head Coach. It's been an up-and-down relationship. He's unhappy about the franchise tag, has yet to sign it. They're still pushing Matt Cassel as the QB and Bowe may not be convinced he's the right guy. There's nobody of note grooming under Cassel.

    2. The Dolphins have suddenly seemed a LOT more willing this off season to bring its native sons back to Miami. Whether this is influenced in any way by Joe Philbin, I don't know, but there certainly seems a different attitude about the whole thing. That could have been something influenced by Parcells as I know for a fact there are some football people that genuinely do not like to keep players in their home town because they fear distractions.

    3. Bowe is currently franchise tagged (and none too happy about it, hasn't signed it) at $9.5 million. If he were to be tagged in 2013 the Chiefs would have to guarantee him $11.4 million which means they'll have paid him $21 million in 2 years with no long term contract and Bowe could still go sign with some other team in 2014. That's not good business. In all likelihood if they don't reach a deal this year, they let him walk in 2013.

    4. The Dolphins have a reported $60+ million of salary cap space burning a hole in their pockets in 2013, plus whatever they have leftover after final cuts this year as it will be rolled forward. Yes, I realize some of that space will be booked up with guys they have to re-sign, not least of which being Jake Long, but they will have a lot of space to work with next year regardless.

    5. I think we all know Ryan Tannehill is not starting this year. However, he remains the likely starter in 2013 as neither Garrard nor Moore are signed beyond 2012. The pressure will be on to set their golden boy up for success immediately and that means surrounding him with WEAPONS. They know they don't have enough weapons on roster at the WR position, hence interest in Chad Johnson, Kashif Montgomery, etc.

    6. Lastly, Dwayne Bowe is and always has been a run after catch guy. He averaged 4.5 yards after catch per reception over the last four seasons. In other words, I think he's the kind of player Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman want at the position. He also brings something to the table from a physical strength standpoint that Philbin had in Green Bay with James Jones and Jordy Nelson, but doesn't have (yet) in Miami.

    Overall, I think it's a good match. The best odds are still that Dwayne Bowe and the Kansas City Chiefs find a way to make it work. However, if that doesn't happen, then I think Miami becomes an "elephant in the room" option for him to sign with in the 2013 free agency.
     
  2. CANEPHINS

    CANEPHINS No Tats & Dreads Allowed

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    According to some this offense doesn't need a #1 WR, so I am sure they can't justify the spending of money on a player like Bowe.
     
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  3. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Would like it....big body....YAC guy, red zone threat......they need.....

    Worth 10M plus tho?
     
  4. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Not worth 10M plus unless he plays out of his mind this year and has his head on straight. Could happen but not that likely, imo.

    Would love to have him here at the right value assuming he doesn't implode.
     
  5. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    He could conceivably be paid $6-8 million per year.
     
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    That might be possible. IMO, the Chiefs are wasting their money franchising him. I do not have the best opinion on Bowe
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Its possible. Biggest issue would be character IMO.
     
  8. PhinsRDbest

    PhinsRDbest Transform and Transcend

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    the next dimension
    I'd prefer Greg Jennings, but if he ceremoniously re-signs with GB then Bowe would be a nice option.
     
  9. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    Dear god I would love for Bowe to take his talents to South Beach.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'd look for everyone involved in that Green Bay offense to try and keep the band the together for as long as possible because they know with Aaron as their quarterback they can do what they can win the Super Bowl any given year.

    Vincent Jackson got a 5 year, $55.5 million contract in Tampa Bay. Dwayne Bowe has actually averaged more than Jackson in terms of yards and touchdowns per game during their careers, and that's with guys like Cassel, Palko, Orton and Thigpen throwing to him versus Jackson always having Phil Rivers. Plus, Bowe doesn't have the possibility of a league suspension looming over his head like Jackson does. On the other hand, Jackson has the size/speed tangibles that coaches get giddy about, and his quality metrics (stuff like yards per attempt, yards per pass snap, pass snaps per touchdown) edge out Bowe's.

    Dwayne Bowe is going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of $9-10 million a year I think and I have no problem with that. He would be an excellent weapon to put next to Ryan Tannehill.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Although I will say this. We've seen hints at character issues for Dwayne Bowe...I don't know that I've seen anything concrete...but if those are more concrete than advertised than I'd probably want to stay away. No sense going out of the frying pan and into the fire, from Brandon Marshall to a guy that is just as big a headache. I can accept some amount of diva but not a huge amount, and certainly nothing that suggests a serious psychological issue, such as Brandon's diagnosed borderline personality disorder or Percy Harvin's throwing a weight slab at his head coach in the gym.
     
  12. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    I would Bowe out.

    Too similar to BM.Although he has a rep for YACs he drops too many easy balls.
     
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  13. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    If Miami sees Bowe as a Greg Jennings type and they could sign him in the $8 - $10 million range then that would be similar to how GB stacked their WR salaries. They had Jennings at $8, Driver at $5 and then Nelson and Jones in the $3s. They also had Finley in the $5s. Miami has Bess in the $3s and I would guess that Hartline will be signed to a deal in the $3s - $5s. Fasano is in the $4s. Bowe, if they see him as a Jennings, could fill that slot. Nanee and Johnson both have relatively small salaries. (those are all 2012 cap costs). IMO it will all come down to the development of the guys they have. If one of the younger guys looks capable of becoming a Jennings type then they might not need a Bowe. If none show that type of potential then Bowe becomes more attractive. Either way, I expect that next year we'll focus more on the WR weapons.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think you're about three years outdated on that criticism. Yes it's true Dwayne Bowe dropped 16 balls in 2008. However, over 2009, 2010 and 2010 his drops were at a different level from Brandon Marshall. If he's similar to Brandon Marshall, that may be a good thing, because Marshall is still a hell of a receiver.

    [video=youtube;uF-eFl2FiQQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF-eFl2FiQQ[/video]
     
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  15. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To be fair if youre going to compare Jackson and Bowe and their QB's and the fact that Bowe has a better YPG average and more catches then you cant leave that its circumstantial. Jackson was surrounded by high end weapons like Gates, Mathews, LT, who demanded the ball. Bowe by comparison is the focal point of his team from a receiving standpoint and the only player of significance who he had to share the ball with was Jamaal Charles. Jackson is the best Yards Per Catch guy in the league over the last 4-5 years...I believe hes been top 3 or 5 each of those years.

    I like Bowe and as a FA, I would take him for 5/45 or so with 15M guaranteed. But head on vs Jackson...thats an interesting debate. Bowe wins on raw numbers but I think Jackson makes his team better because hes a true downfield player. I wouldnt be surprised if Bowe got a contract similar to Jackson (5/55M)
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't know if we should be shooting for exact patterns like that. That would kind of imply that Green Bay is going to jettison either Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings, since clearly Nelson's next contract is going to have to pay him quite a bit of money. But we don't know that they'll do that. They may keep both. Just because the salary structure is the way it is, doesn't mean it's targeted. It happens organically.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I didn't say that Bowe should win head-on with Jackson. I think Jackson probably wins even with the QB argument and even with the suspension looming over his head. As for the weaponry surrounding the guys, to be fair Bowe had Tony Gonzalez also in KC for two of his five years, in addition to guys like you said Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster at tailback. And I think you're really overestimating the talent at receiver playing opposite Vincent and "demanding" the football. I think that's been about even between the two teams. The real delta has been in my opinion Gonzalez for only two of Bowe's five seasons versus Gates being around for all of Jackson's years. Then again one could argue the presence of a good TE could actually benefit a WR...so who knows.

    I think it comes back to good old fashioned physical dimensions. Vincent Jackson has that super rare combination of 6'5" and 240 lbs size, with 4.46 Combine speed which may even be faster as I've heard he privately tested in the 4.3's or somewhere around there. Bowe is physically imposing and impressive at 6'2" and 220 lbs with 4.51 Combine speed...but it's not the same.
     
  18. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    meh, he would've been worthwhile a couple years ago, but next year would be too old and expensive...Does he even fit the SBO?
     
  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I don't mean that GB's allocation is the goal. I mean that they will pay a #1 in that salary range if he fits. If they feel Bowe equals Jennings then he's a possible target. Some people take the "we don't need/want a #1" thing too far. IMO the team believes are fine with several #2s as long as they have the ability to beat single coverage, but if they have a #1 available whose salary isn't a top 5 cap hit they may still get him. Marshall was a top 5 WR cap guy and there were fit/character questions. Jennings was a top 10 WR cap guy. The difference was enough for another #2 depending on whose cap number you believe. IMO they want several potential targets so they never feel they have to feed one guy primarily. I think that's what GB has and what they're trying to emulate.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think the "we don't need a #1" stuff is just rationalization. They made the choice to get rid of Marshall if they got a good offer on the table before Joe Philbin even arrived, and I doubt he had very much say in the matter. Once Chicago offered up two 3rd round picks, that was it. There was no, we'll pay top 10 money but not top 5 money. There was no, we need a bunch of #2's not #1's. I think once Brandon was officially diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, and had gotten so bad with his receivers coach they had to actually move him to a different position...they were in "get whatever we can for Marshall" mode. If a good offer had come before the 2011 trade deadline they'd have probably executed that trade back then.
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree that Marshall would have been traded had we had the offer beforehand, but I do think salary/cap allocation is a consideration. And I don't agree that preferring several targets over a guy you have to feed is a rationalization. IMO it is a core belief of Philbin's. I think there were WRs the could have targeted in the draft and that they made the conscious decision to prioritize other spots. Part of that is Ireland's belief that he can find another Miles Austin type, but I have no doubt that Philbin's philosophy was a factor. IMO Philbin is a guy who knows that passing and stopping the pass is the key to winning. He said as much in his first PC. I expect that he looked at the roster and spoke to Ireland and that they made the plan to prioritize pass rusher and TE early in the draft and hoped to add bodies/developmental types at WR late and/or bring in a FA like Johnson. IMO this off-season went very much according to their plan in terms of player acquisition. I think that next year address more WR targets and that a guy like Bowe is a possibility depending on what developmental guys like Wallace, Gates and Matthews showed.
     
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  22. PhinsRock

    PhinsRock Premium Member Luxury Box

    Color me uninterested at the likely cost. Character and age seem to be two strikes against him, if they are true. This one could be very interesting, rather see us develop some of our rookie/FA/UDFA WR's with size and speed. I'm very interested in learning what our new staff can do in the player development area, WR is the neediest area IMVHO.
     
  23. Yellow Snowman

    Yellow Snowman New Member

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    Chad Johnson is trash. Get him out of the mix and you improve. Bowe is a good addition though
     
  24. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    i dont know dont wanna have to pay big bucks for a WR who will be 29 by week 3 in 2013
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'm sure the Baltimore Ravens are glad they paid Anquan Boldin.
     
  26. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

  27. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    Someone stole CK's Twitter thoughts, and wrote a story about it hahahahahaha

    No worries CK, we know where it came from originally...
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Rosenthal wrote that before I wrote anything about Bowe. I saw Vontae's original tweets about Bowe to OchoCinco and knew it was only a matter of time before someone starts writing stories about it.

    The reason I wrote my own thread about this is because I just felt like everyone had the wrong read on this. Everyone gets caught up in either A) flatly denying that any of this has any significance whatsoever, or B) getting all excited as if a trade for Dwayne Bowe is imminent.

    They hadn't really considered C) that this might be significant in facilitating a Dwayne Bowe free agent signing in 2013. Rosenthal's story brushes on that possibility but seems to dismiss it out of hand saying that the Chiefs will just use the franchise tag on him again, which I tend to doubt.
     
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  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    This is all a farce IMO.

    Vontae Davis just doing his agent a favor. Him and Bowe are both represented by Todd France IIRC.

    Not saying that Bowe to Miami isn't possible, but at this point I would guess that Vontae's tweets were manufactured.
     
  30. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bowe's an excellent replacement for Marshall, but I'm not sure they are going to want that kind of player, even behavior issues aside.

    I think there's an argument that Bowe needs a high volume of targets to be successful, and that kind of workload isn't really tenable in an orthodox WCO. If we're running a more Shanahan-influence WCO I think then it's much less of an issue, but that might not be the goal short or long-term.
     
  31. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Victor Cruz and Antonio Brown are both FAs in 2013 as well.

    Idk if the odds are great that either makes it to the market, but I think I'd rather have either of those two over Bowe.
     
  32. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    IF Victor Cruz or Antonio Brown make it to market then I think most teams are going to be interested in them. However, the franchise tag will be available to use on both guys and seeing as how it hasn't already been used on either of them in 2012, it won't be extraordinarily expensive. I'd put the chances of either making it to the free market about 5%.

    Dwayne Bowe is more likely to make it to market because he'll be 29 years old, with an up-and-down history with his own club as far as attitude and chemistry, getting along with coaches, etc. He had the franchise tag slapped on him alreaady in 2012, which means the 2013 tag will be 20% more expensive, and he's even more likely to hold out in 2013 than he is in 2012. He's already been a non-participant in the entire off season program up to this point I believe, and there seems a decent chance he might hold out during training camp as well. After having that kind of sour experience with using the franchise tag on Dwayne Bowe in 2012, the Chiefs aren't going to want to pay 20% more just to do the same thing in 2013.

    Sure we can all look at the rest of the league and fantasize about how we'd rather have this guy or that guy, I'd rather have Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson, and oh let's add Miles Austin as a slot reciever while we're at it...but this is about what is realistic and what is available to acquire in free agency is almost never totally ideal, otherwise it wouldn't be available.

    It would be great if Jeff Ireland had managed to draft receivers with genuine play making talent, and then we wouldn't have to cycle through imperfect options Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Bowe...but that's just not the situation we find ourselves in.
     
  33. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, I think the most logical, best-case scenario is Greg Jennings.

    I think Victor Cruz might be the least likely guy to make the market. I think Kevin Gilbride would leap from something high if they let a guy who was so good with making run and shoot type decisions in the slot walk.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I don't think any of the three players will make it to market. The Steelers are even less likely to give up Antonio Brown than they were Mike Wallace IMO, and as you say the Giants are not likely to let Victor Cruz walk unless he suffers the same kind of injury fate Steve Smith did when they let him walk (by accident, they wanted him back but played with fire and got burned). I think there will be a strong push in Green Bay from both the front office and Greg Jennings to keep the band together, that being Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. They know that if they keep that group together they can win the Super Bowl any given year. They had one of the crappiest defenses I've ever seen in 2011 and they still almost went 16-0.
     
  35. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    They strike me as the kind of team who may choose to let a player walk if the cost is too much, and last year Nelson appeared to become the "guy". I think it's more likely he's retained than not but I don't think it would be shocking to let him walk and replace

    Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown I think may be a fairly good bet, probably more likely Wallace.

    There's also the idea of "building through the draft" that was sold this offseason. They very well me inclined to actually honest to goodness do that.
     
  36. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    In reality I agree and doubt any of the 4 make it to FA. I think Jennings would take a discount to stay in GB as well.

    Can't see PIT letting Wallace go without some kind of compensation either.

    When you look at the rest of the would be WR FAs, it just makes me wish we'd roll the dice on James Jones that much more.
     

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