Dwayne Bowe in 2013?

[ckparrothead]

There's some noise being made out there because Vontae Davis, Chad Johnson and Dwayne Bowe started kidding around on Twitter about Dwayne joining the Dolphins.

I don't care much about that. Vontae and Chad openly pandered for Percy Harvin as well, and not only does that have about no chance of happening, I personally would view that as a mistake anyway.

What does interest me is the fact that as Vontae alluded to, Dwayne did tell him privately that he would like to take his talents to South Beach. Then to top it off, Bowe publicly confirmed it on Twitter. Vontae said something to Chad Johnson that they need to get up there and help Dwayne pack to come to Miami, and Dwayne replied to them "omw" (which means 'on my way'). It's not exactly all that surprising or a big stretch for Dwayne to want to play in Miami. He grew up there. He went to Miami-Norland. But it is a significant confirmation, in my opinion.

It's significant because when you put together the full set of circumstances, this could actually happen...in 2013.

1. As alluded to, Bowe seems to want to be in Miami. There's a rocky history between him and KC and I can understand if he's itching to move on, even though Romeo Crennel is now the Head Coach. It's been an up-and-down relationship. He's unhappy about the franchise tag, has yet to sign it. They're still pushing Matt Cassel as the QB and Bowe may not be convinced he's the right guy. There's nobody of note grooming under Cassel.

2. The Dolphins have suddenly seemed a LOT more willing this off season to bring its native sons back to Miami. Whether this is influenced in any way by Joe Philbin, I don't know, but there certainly seems a different attitude about the whole thing. That could have been something influenced by Parcells as I know for a fact there are some football people that genuinely do not like to keep players in their home town because they fear distractions.

3. Bowe is currently franchise tagged (and none too happy about it, hasn't signed it) at $9.5 million. If he were to be tagged in 2013 the Chiefs would have to guarantee him $11.4 million which means they'll have paid him $21 million in 2 years with no long term contract and Bowe could still go sign with some other team in 2014. That's not good business. In all likelihood if they don't reach a deal this year, they let him walk in 2013.

4. The Dolphins have a reported $60+ million of salary cap space burning a hole in their pockets in 2013, plus whatever they have leftover after final cuts this year as it will be rolled forward. Yes, I realize some of that space will be booked up with guys they have to re-sign, not least of which being Jake Long, but they will have a lot of space to work with next year regardless.

5. I think we all know Ryan Tannehill is not starting this year. However, he remains the likely starter in 2013 as neither Garrard nor Moore are signed beyond 2012. The pressure will be on to set their golden boy up for success immediately and that means surrounding him with WEAPONS. They know they don't have enough weapons on roster at the WR position, hence interest in Chad Johnson, Kashif Montgomery, etc.

6. Lastly, Dwayne Bowe is and always has been a run after catch guy. He averaged 4.5 yards after catch per reception over the last four seasons. In other words, I think he's the kind of player Joe Philbin and Mike Sherman want at the position. He also brings something to the table from a physical strength standpoint that Philbin had in Green Bay with James Jones and Jordy Nelson, but doesn't have (yet) in Miami.

Overall, I think it's a good match. The best odds are still that Dwayne Bowe and the Kansas City Chiefs find a way to make it work. However, if that doesn't happen, then I think Miami becomes an "elephant in the room" option for him to sign with in the 2013 free agency.

[CANEPHINS]

According to some this offense doesn't need a #1 WR, so I am sure they can't justify the spending of money on a player like Bowe.

[finyank13]

Would like it....big body....YAC guy, red zone threat......they need.....

Worth 10M plus tho?

[slickj101]

Would like it....big body....YAC guy, red zone threat......they need.....

Worth 10M plus tho?

Not worth 10M plus unless he plays out of his mind this year and has his head on straight. Could happen but not that likely, imo.

Would love to have him here at the right value assuming he doesn't implode.

[KingMotion]

He could conceivably be paid $6-8 million per year.

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

He could conceivably be paid $6-8 million per year.

That might be possible. IMO, the Chiefs are wasting their money franchising him. I do not have the best opinion on Bowe

[Stringer Bell]

Its possible. Biggest issue would be character IMO.

[PhinsRDbest]

I'd prefer Greg Jennings, but if he ceremoniously re-signs with GB then Bowe would be a nice option.

[dolfan32323]

Dear god I would love for Bowe to take his talents to South Beach.

[ckparrothead]

I'd look for everyone involved in that Green Bay offense to try and keep the band the together for as long as possible because they know with Aaron as their quarterback they can do what they can win the Super Bowl any given year.

Vincent Jackson got a 5 year, $55.5 million contract in Tampa Bay. Dwayne Bowe has actually averaged more than Jackson in terms of yards and touchdowns per game during their careers, and that's with guys like Cassel, Palko, Orton and Thigpen throwing to him versus Jackson always having Phil Rivers. Plus, Bowe doesn't have the possibility of a league suspension looming over his head like Jackson does. On the other hand, Jackson has the size/speed tangibles that coaches get giddy about, and his quality metrics (stuff like yards per attempt, yards per pass snap, pass snaps per touchdown) edge out Bowe's.

Dwayne Bowe is going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of $9-10 million a year I think and I have no problem with that. He would be an excellent weapon to put next to Ryan Tannehill.

[ckparrothead]

Although I will say this. We've seen hints at character issues for Dwayne Bowe...I don't know that I've seen anything concrete...but if those are more concrete than advertised than I'd probably want to stay away. No sense going out of the frying pan and into the fire, from Brandon Marshall to a guy that is just as big a headache. I can accept some amount of diva but not a huge amount, and certainly nothing that suggests a serious psychological issue, such as Brandon's diagnosed borderline personality disorder or Percy Harvin's throwing a weight slab at his head coach in the gym.

[CrunchTime]

I would Bowe out.

Too similar to BM.Although he has a rep for YACs he drops too many easy balls.

[rafael]

If Miami sees Bowe as a Greg Jennings type and they could sign him in the $8 - $10 million range then that would be similar to how GB stacked their WR salaries. They had Jennings at $8, Driver at $5 and then Nelson and Jones in the $3s. They also had Finley in the $5s. Miami has Bess in the $3s and I would guess that Hartline will be signed to a deal in the $3s - $5s. Fasano is in the $4s. Bowe, if they see him as a Jennings, could fill that slot. Nanee and Johnson both have relatively small salaries. (those are all 2012 cap costs). IMO it will all come down to the development of the guys they have. If one of the younger guys looks capable of becoming a Jennings type then they might not need a Bowe. If none show that type of potential then Bowe becomes more attractive. Either way, I expect that next year we'll focus more on the WR weapons.

[ckparrothead]

I think you're about three years outdated on that criticism. Yes it's true Dwayne Bowe dropped 16 balls in 2008. However, over 2009, 2010 and 2010 his drops were at a different level from Brandon Marshall. If he's similar to Brandon Marshall, that may be a good thing, because Marshall is still a hell of a receiver.

[Boik14]

I'd look for everyone involved in that Green Bay offense to try and keep the band the together for as long as possible because they know with Aaron as their quarterback they can do what they can win the Super Bowl any given year.

Vincent Jackson got a 5 year, $55.5 million contract in Tampa Bay. Dwayne Bowe has actually averaged more than Jackson in terms of yards and touchdowns per game during their careers, and that's with guys like Cassel, Palko, Orton and Thigpen throwing to him versus Jackson always having Phil Rivers. Plus, Bowe doesn't have the possibility of a league suspension looming over his head like Jackson does. On the other hand, Jackson has the size/speed tangibles that coaches get giddy about, and his quality metrics (stuff like yards per attempt, yards per pass snap, pass snaps per touchdown) edge out Bowe's.

Dwayne Bowe is going to get somewhere in the neighborhood of $9-10 million a year I think and I have no problem with that. He would be an excellent weapon to put next to Ryan Tannehill.

To be fair if youre going to compare Jackson and Bowe and their QB's and the fact that Bowe has a better YPG average and more catches then you cant leave that its circumstantial. Jackson was surrounded by high end weapons like Gates, Mathews, LT, who demanded the ball. Bowe by comparison is the focal point of his team from a receiving standpoint and the only player of significance who he had to share the ball with was Jamaal Charles. Jackson is the best Yards Per Catch guy in the league over the last 4-5 years...I believe hes been top 3 or 5 each of those years.

I like Bowe and as a FA, I would take him for 5/45 or so with 15M guaranteed. But head on vs Jackson...thats an interesting debate. Bowe wins on raw numbers but I think Jackson makes his team better because hes a true downfield player. I wouldnt be surprised if Bowe got a contract similar to Jackson (5/55M)

[ckparrothead]

If Miami sees Bowe as a Greg Jennings type and they could sign him in the $8 - $10 million range then that would be similar to how GB stacked their WR salaries. They had Jennings at $8, Driver at $5 and then Nelson and Jones in the $3s. They also had Finley in the $5s. Miami has Bess in the $3s and I would guess that Hartline will be signed to a deal in the $3s - $5s. Fasano is in the $4s. Bowe, if they see him as a Jennings, could fill that slot. Nanee and Johnson both have relatively small salaries. (those are all 2012 cap costs). IMO it will all come down to the development of the guys they have. If one of the younger guys looks capable of becoming a Jennings type then they might not need a Bowe. If none show that type of potential then Bowe becomes more attractive. Either way, I expect that next year we'll focus more on the WR weapons.

I don't know if we should be shooting for exact patterns like that. That would kind of imply that Green Bay is going to jettison either Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings, since clearly Nelson's next contract is going to have to pay him quite a bit of money. But we don't know that they'll do that. They may keep both. Just because the salary structure is the way it is, doesn't mean it's targeted. It happens organically.

[ckparrothead]

To be fair if youre going to compare Jackson and Bowe and their QB's and the fact that Bowe has a better YPG average and more catches then you cant leave that its circumstantial. Jackson was surrounded by high end weapons like Gates, Mathews, LT, who demanded the ball. Bowe by comparison is the focal point of his team from a receiving standpoint and the only player of significance who he had to share the ball with was Jamaal Charles. Jackson is the best Yards Per Catch guy in the league over the last 4-5 years...I believe hes been top 3 or 5 each of those years.

I like Bowe and as a FA, I would take him for 5/45 or so with 15M guaranteed. But head on vs Jackson...thats an interesting debate. Bowe wins on raw numbers but I think Jackson makes his team better because hes a true downfield player. I wouldnt be surprised if Bowe got a contract similar to Jackson (5/55M)

I didn't say that Bowe should win head-on with Jackson. I think Jackson probably wins even with the QB argument and even with the suspension looming over his head. As for the weaponry surrounding the guys, to be fair Bowe had Tony Gonzalez also in KC for two of his five years, in addition to guys like you said Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster at tailback. And I think you're really overestimating the talent at receiver playing opposite Vincent and "demanding" the football. I think that's been about even between the two teams. The real delta has been in my opinion Gonzalez for only two of Bowe's five seasons versus Gates being around for all of Jackson's years. Then again one could argue the presence of a good TE could actually benefit a WR...so who knows.

I think it comes back to good old fashioned physical dimensions. Vincent Jackson has that super rare combination of 6'5" and 240 lbs size, with 4.46 Combine speed which may even be faster as I've heard he privately tested in the 4.3's or somewhere around there. Bowe is physically imposing and impressive at 6'2" and 220 lbs with 4.51 Combine speed...but it's not the same.

[Pandarilla]

meh, he would've been worthwhile a couple years ago, but next year would be too old and expensive...Does he even fit the SBO?

[rafael]

I don't know if we should be shooting for exact patterns like that. That would kind of imply that Green Bay is going to jettison either Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings, since clearly Nelson's next contract is going to have to pay him quite a bit of money. But we don't know that they'll do that. They may keep both. Just because the salary structure is the way it is, doesn't mean it's targeted. It happens organically.

I don't mean that GB's allocation is the goal. I mean that they will pay a #1 in that salary range if he fits. If they feel Bowe equals Jennings then he's a possible target. Some people take the "we don't need/want a #1" thing too far. IMO the team believes are fine with several #2s as long as they have the ability to beat single coverage, but if they have a #1 available whose salary isn't a top 5 cap hit they may still get him. Marshall was a top 5 WR cap guy and there were fit/character questions. Jennings was a top 10 WR cap guy. The difference was enough for another #2 depending on whose cap number you believe. IMO they want several potential targets so they never feel they have to feed one guy primarily. I think that's what GB has and what they're trying to emulate.

[ckparrothead]

I think the "we don't need a #1" stuff is just rationalization. They made the choice to get rid of Marshall if they got a good offer on the table before Joe Philbin even arrived, and I doubt he had very much say in the matter. Once Chicago offered up two 3rd round picks, that was it. There was no, we'll pay top 10 money but not top 5 money. There was no, we need a bunch of #2's not #1's. I think once Brandon was officially diagnosed with borderline personality disorder, and had gotten so bad with his receivers coach they had to actually move him to a different position...they were in "get whatever we can for Marshall" mode. If a good offer had come before the 2011 trade deadline they'd have probably executed that trade back then.