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An actuall look at QBs taken in 1 st round since 2003

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by mommabilly, Apr 6, 2012.

  1. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Lets look at QBs taken AFTER the first 5 picks. Lets face it, with a few exceptions, QBs taken in the top 3 picks are uusally legit, after 3rd its a crap shoot at best. Yep, you got the Flacco's , Rodgers and such but not many. So here it goes. Again, just looking at first round picks. Hyde, you should actually look into things before you print them

    2003
    pick 7 Bryon Leftwich
    pick 19 Kyle Boller
    pick 22 Rex Grossman Non of these guys turned out to be crap.

    2004

    pick 11 Ben Roethlisberger Hit, a rare find
    pick 22 JP Lossman

    2005
    pick 21 Matt Jones Who ?????
    pick 24 Aaron Rodgers nug said, on his way to be a great QB
    pick 25 Jason Campbell Meh, you can have him

    2006
    pick 10 Matt Leinhart failure
    pick 11 Jay Cutler did halway decent and then ?

    2007
    pick 22 Brady Quin LMFAO

    2007 Jamarcus Russell taken number 1 overall, MISTAKE !!!!!!!!!!!!

    2008
    pick 18 Joe Flacco as I said, there are exceptions

    2009
    none

    2010
    pick 25 Tim Teeeeeeee bow. Opinions vary as wide as I95 is long

    2011
    pick 8 Jake Locker Meh
    pick 10 Blaine Gabbert Double Meh
    pick 12 Christian Ponder Triple Meh
    Never since I have been watching drafts have so many also ran QBs were taken in the first 15 picks. Then again with the new Rookie wage scale, they were a relatively cheap gamble. Outside of Newton, who got around 22 million, the rest really suck bad.

    So there it is. Since 2003 of the 16 QBs taken after pick 5. 3 have really turned into what one would consider Franchise QBs. 19% ratio turned out to be really good. The rest ? You can take them or leave them. Now, lets see who was taken in the first 5 picks from 2003 to 2011

    2003
    pick 1 Carson Palmer started off good but fizzled due to injuries and the rest of the team sucking badly

    2004
    Pick 1 Eli Manning Franchise QB
    Pick 4 Phillip Rivers Franchise QB

    2005
    Pick 1 Alex Smith One good year since he was drafted. Blame it on many HC/OC or what you will, outside of 2011 season, the kid has done squat.

    2006
    Pick 3 Vince Young EPIC FAILURE

    2007
    Pick 1 JaMarcus Russell Failure of biblical proportions

    2008
    pick 3 Matt Ryan Good QB, franchisesque, we should have taken him.

    2009
    Pick 1 Mathew Stafford Good but due to injuries I cannot say as of yet that he is a franchise type QB. Certainly better then anything we have had.
    Pick 5 Mark Sanchez Varied opinion from still learning to likes to bob for male apples on the weekends. Not a franchise QB.

    2010
    pick 1 Sam Bradford due to the Rams being cursed until time ends and injuries, the kid has not showed as of yet he is a franchise QB BUT, he certainly has the potential to be a franchise QB. Time will tell.

    2011
    Pick 1 Cam Newton again, varied opinions but IMO, franchise QB.

    So there it is. Since 2003 of the 11 QBs taken in the top 5 picks, IMO 6 would be considered franchise QBs. Thats 55% of the QBs taken that are IMO, franchise QBs. Thats a HUGE increase over ones taken after pick 5 (19%) that would be franchise QBs IMO.

    As a matter of fact if you look even closer, since 2003, of the QBs picked in the top 5, only 2 after pick 1 Ryan and Rivers , is considered to be a franchise QB. Again, the rest are also rans.

    Lets face it and the results above clearly show the evidence. If you choose a QB in the first round after the 2nd pick, the chances of him turning into a really good QB no less a franchise QB are very ver veeeeeeeeeeeery low. Results show that of the 27 QBs taken in the first round since 2003, and after taking out the first overall picks,( 7 ) that leaves 19 QBs overall taken the first round, of which only 5 were franchise type QBs. or 26% of the ones taken after pick 1.


    Whats the percentage of really good ones taken after pick 7 ? Same as the percentage of ones picked after pick 5. 19% of them turned out to be franchise QBs Roethlissburger, Flacco and Rodgers. Percentages show clearly after pick 5 in the draft, choosing a QB in the first round is nothing more then a crap shoot. Again, IMO, Tannehill will just be part of the 81% of QBs taken after pick 5 that will fail. 81%, Hyde should have realized there is a lot more then just blurting out first round QBs. 81% failure vs 19% success. Those type of odds keep the lights burning brightly in Vegas 24/7 folks.
     
  2. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    No offense but I have not seen it and I have been here for more then a year. Hyde blatantly blurted out a bunch of BS. ALL QBs taken in the first round are not good. From where we are picking its an 81% failure rate for them. I have not seen that, please show me where that figure was put up. Thanks I have not seen not a one with the list of QBs and where they were picked and their overall success rate as a post or a thread in here.
     
  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Matt Jones was drafted to be a wide receiver
     
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  4. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    The reason why this is dumb, not you, the post, is because QB's don't have theoretical position numbers attached to them. They're not destined to their number drafted. It all depends on who wins how many games one year, what position they have in the draft, who trades picks with who, etc. Draft position does not determine success. The perceived ability to succeed determines draft position along with a couple of variables listed above as well as things like injury history and off-field concerns. It's like when someone says plants produce oxygen, therefore plants are made for us, rather than we're here because plants produce oxygen.
     
  5. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Take him off then, you do the math. % will not change drastically at all.
     
  6. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    Draft position+good performance=good pick
    Draft position+poor performance=bust

    The first round isn't for reaches, it's for sure(as sure as can be)players. Am I oversimplifying this too much?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  7. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Not dumb at all. Hyde put in print 2 qbs taken after the first round have made the playoffs. With the above info it proves, taking his 2 guys into account and the three I listed that after the 5th pick, only 5 QBs have made the playoffs. That increases the overall failure rate for QBs taken after the 1st pick even greater. Using his 2 Qbs and what I listed above that means that a grand total, tebow included, of 6 qbs taken after the first overall pick have made the playoffs. Thats insane. Failure equals picking a QB, any QB with the 8th overall pick. History and percentages point to failure picking a QB, any QB after the second overall pick in the draft.

    Thats the point I was bringing out, after the second pick, not many at all, QBs have a good success rate. Hyde was trying to stess the fact we had better sure pick Tannehill or Weeden at 8 or the success rate after that is low. Well the list above clearly shows the success rate after the top 4 picks is clearly low. Point being ? No matter which QB we pick at the 8th spot, if we do pick a QB, odds on favorite is he will not be successfull no less a franchise type long term QB. Let me guess, you think that is not relevant ?

    After the first few are gone, ones picked after that are also rans with exception of a very few that turned into elite and one, Tebow, that is a puzzle. Thats my point.
     
  8. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    I am not taking offense and getting chippy. I think I politely asked to be shown this list that is posted every month. Is that chippy ? So, waiting for the link of these monthly posts listing what I listed. It seems around here if one does not think in the same direction as a few select posters then anything and everything is attempted to change the subject. Personally, I don't care. As I have said and as you put it, not being chippy, I have not seen it. If it really exists, show me or, get off the subject of it being repeated please. I have better things to do then get " chippy " with electronic signals.
     
  9. Clipse

    Clipse mediocrity sucks

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    Not counting the 3 drafted last year since it's too early to say, that's really only a 62% bust rate. 58% if you decide to not count Tebow. Now compare that to the 90% + bust rate for all the QB's taken out of the 1st round, and I'll gladly take my chances. You either take that chance, tank, or take no chance at all and be stuck in mediocrity for another 13 years. Your choice.
     
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  10. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Well there ya go, 3 other times, good for you. Did not read a one of them. Now its 4 times but this time is has percentages and is actually challenging what a local rag hack reporter put in print.
     
  11. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    How do you figure its only a 62% bust rate ? No way, far higher then that. Hey, if they take Tannehill and when he fails I am going to sit back and watch the same people hammer him that begged we take him. IMO, get thru the year with Moore or Garrard. Tannehill is not doing anything this year anyway.

    On top of that, I have no confidence in this kids foot holding up in NFL conditions. Not one bit.
     
  12. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Mine is not a duplicate. Like I said, completely different reason why it was posted and entirely different body of content. But hey, Thanks for digging them up anyway.
     
  13. Clipse

    Clipse mediocrity sucks

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    You listed 13 QB's not counting the 3 drafted last year since it's too early to say. Not counting Russell either since he was the top pick. 5 were not busts. You do the math. In fact, it's actually only a 58% bust rate. Matt Jones was not drafted to play QB.
     
  14. Killer Bees

    Killer Bees Bringin' the Ruckus

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    So we should just wait til we have a top 2 pick and then think about solving the QB position? Sometimes you gotta go against the odds to reach the top...
     
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  15. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why? How many games have you seen of him? What are you basing this on. What is it about his game specifically that you don't like?
     
  16. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    By the way, even using your system, the odds are still far greater you find a franchise QB in round 1 after the 5th pick, than finding one in any other round.

    You can't count any of the QBs drafted last year because it's way too early to tell. You're entitled to your opinions on them, but claiming that they are busts is extremely shortsighted at this point.

    2003: 0/4 : 0/9
    2004: 1/2 : 1/12
    2005: 1/2 : 1/11 (Counting Ryan Fitzpatrick as a franchise QB)
    2006: 1/2 : 0/10
    2007: 0/1 : 0/9
    2008: 1/1 : 0/11
    2009: 1/1 (I'm counting Freeman, but it's still not really determined) : 0/8

    To be fair to the opposing argument I won't use the 2010 season as an example because if you're drafted after round 1 you don't usually see the field that early so we don't really know. As it looks now I'd say Tebow was a whiff, and Dalton was a hit for the after the 1st round category.

    So going by 2003-2009 you have a 5/13 (38%) success rate at a franchise QB in round one (after pick 5) vs. a 2/70 (less than 3%) success rate in QBs taken in round 2 or later.
     
  17. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    Guys calm down.... We can simply trade up to number 3 with the Vikings and take Tannehill there to get out of this whole failure rate thing. :wink2:
     
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  18. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    When we get a top 2 pick, we take a lineman or RB.
     
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  19. Killer Bees

    Killer Bees Bringin' the Ruckus

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    lol yeah but would you really want Ryan over Long, I personally wouldn't. And with Ronnie that's the past regime, but yeah they shoulda grabbed Rodgers.
     
  20. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    its not where the quarterback is drafted, it's his skill set. some draft classes give you jim kelly, elway marino etc...the one with rivers eli and rapelessburger...i mean come on man!
     
  21. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed, but the skill set is going to be higher with guys with 1st round grades. And the guys with big time skill sets with lower grades have other factors that make them a greater risk. For example, Osweiler has a huge upside, but IMO has a much higher risk of never reaching that potential than a guy like Tannehill.
     
  22. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    I like how Flacco is discussed as an exception and Jay Cutler as a bust. This Earth is strange.
     
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  23. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    At this point, yeah, I would. Jake is great but he only has so much impact.
     
  24. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Why not go beyond that and look at the QB success rate in rounds 2 and 3.
     
  25. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Its a toss up because Ryan looked pretty average last season. Then again Jake Long is piling up the injuries. Also given are track record drafting Linemen outside round 1 hasn't been very good. If we took Ryan it would have been very bad for Ryan.
     
  26. bbqpitlover

    bbqpitlover Well-Known Member

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    My question is how has Miami done in their franchise history when drafting a quarterback in the first round. I may be wrong but only two guys come to mind and they are Bob Griese and Dan Marino and if my memory serves me right both these guys did pretty well in Miami and qualify as being franchise quarterbacks. Lets look at our recent history of drafting qb's in the 2nd round. We have John Beck,Pat White and Chad Henne so how did we do with these awesome picks? By the way going into the draft there is not one quarterback on the Dolphin roster that they drafted. This is a position on the team Miami has been ignoring in the draft for way too long and its time to address it.
     
  27. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    They also drafted a QB in the 1st round in 1966. Rick Norton, an All American, from Kentucky, was taken 2nd or 3rd overall, and he turned out to be as big a bust as any 1st round QB ever.
     
  28. phinnhedd

    phinnhedd Reality.

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    Here's a little history of qb's who've taken or ridden their team into the playoffs since 03.

    03-04 Playoffs:

    Patriots: Tom Brady 6th Round (199)
    Titans: Steve McNair 1st Round (3)
    Colts: Peyton Manning 1st overall pick.
    Chiefs: Trent Green 8th round pick (222)
    Panthers: Jake Delhomme undrafted
    Ravens: Kyle Boller 1st Round (19) *Also Anthony Wright (undrafted)
    Broncos: Jake Plummer 2nd Round (42)
    Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck 6th Round (187)
    Rams: Marc Bulger 6th Round (168)
    Eagles: Donovan McNabb 1st Round (2)
    Packers: Brett Favre 2nd Round (33)
    Cowboys: Quincy Carter 2nd Round (53)

    04-05 Playoffs

    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger 1st Round (11)
    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Chargers: Drew Brees 2nd Round (32)
    Jets: Chad Pennington 1st Round (18)
    Broncos: Jake Plummer.
    Eagles: Donovan McNabb.
    Falcons: Michael Vick 1st overall pick.
    Packers: Brett Favre.
    Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck.
    Rams: Marc Bulger.
    Vikings: Daunte Culpepper 1st Round (11)

    05-06 Playoffs

    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Broncos: Jake Plummer.
    Bengals: Jon Kitna undrafted
    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Jaguars: Byron Leftwich 1st Round (7)
    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger.
    Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck..
    Bears: Rex Grossman 1st Round (22)
    Bucs: Chris Simms 3rd Round (97)
    Giants: Eli Manning 1st overall pick.
    Panthers: Jake Delhomme.
    Redskins: Marc Brunell 5th Round (118)

    06-07 Playoffs

    Chargers: Philip Rivers 1st Round (4)
    Ravens: Steve McNair.
    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Jets: Chad Pennington.
    Chiefs: Trent Green.
    Bears: Rex Grossman.
    Saints: Drew Brees.
    Eagles: McNabb/Jeff Garcia (Garcia went undrafted)
    Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck.
    Cowboys: Tony Romo undrafted
    Giants: Eli Manning.

    07-08 Playoffs

    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Chargers: Philip Rivers.
    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger.
    Jaguars: Byron Leftwich.
    Titans: Vince Young 1st Round (3)
    Cowboys: Tony Romo.
    Packers: Brett Favre.
    Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck.
    Bucs: Jeff Garcia.
    Giants: Eli Manning.
    Redskins: Jason Campbell 1st Round (25)

    08-09 Playoffs

    Titans:
    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger.
    Dolphins: Chad Pennington.
    Chargers: Philip Rivers.
    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Ravens: Joe Flacco 1st Round (18)
    Giants: Eli Manning.
    Panthers: Jake Delhomme.
    Vikings: Gus Frerotte/Tarvaris Jackson (Gus 7th 197)(Tarvaris 2nd 64)
    Cardinals: Kurt Warner undrafted
    Falcons: Matt Ryan 1st (3)
    Eagles: Donovan McNabb.

    09-10 Playoffs

    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Chargers: Philip Rivers.
    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Bengals: Carson Palmer 1st overall pick
    Jets: Mark Sanchez 1st Round (5)
    Ravens: Joe Flacco.
    Saints: Drew Brees.
    Vikings: Brett Favre.
    Cowboys: Tony Romo.
    Cardinals: Kurt Warner.
    Packers: Aaron Rodgers 1st Round (24)
    Eagles: McNabb/Kolb/Vick (Kolb 2nd 36)

    10-11 Playoffs

    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger.
    Colts: Peyton Manning.
    Chiefs: Matt Cassel 7th Round (230)
    Ravens: Joe Flacco.
    Jets: Mark Sanchez.
    Falcons: Matt Ryan.
    Bears: Jay Cutler 1st Round (11)
    Eagles: Michael Vick.
    Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck.
    Saints: Drew Brees.
    Packers: Aaron Rodgers.

    11-12 Playoffs

    Patriots: Tom Brady.
    Ravens: Joe Flacco.
    Texans: Matt Schaub/TJ Yates (Schaub 3rd 90/TJ 5th 152)
    Broncos: Tim Tebow 1st Round (25)
    Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger.
    Bengals: Andy Dalton 2nd Round (35)
    Packers: Aaron Rodgers.
    49ers: Alex Smith 1st overall pick
    Saints: Drew Brees.
    Giants: Eli Manning.
    Falcons: Matt Ryan.
    Lions: Matt Stafford 1st overall pick




    Make your own judgments.
     
  29. Clipse

    Clipse mediocrity sucks

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    If 29 TD's and 12 INT's with 4,200 yards and a 92.2 QBR is average, then damn we have a god awful QB under center. Jake Long was the wrong pick, easily. Finding lineman outside of round 1 is very easy for every other team in the league. Sadly, we're one of the exceptions because we have a clueless wonder as GM.
     
  30. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    its all a crapshoot! NFL adjustments are hard for alot of people. I think if you play a pro style offense you stand a better chance.
     
  31. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Ryan should have had a bigger year he underachieved in my eyes. I guess Jake Long was the wrong pick but not for this team as you say we can't find good linemen outside of round 1. This years class is pretty weak so it surprised me they didn't go after a RT in FA.
     
  32. mommabilly

    mommabilly No riders allowed

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    Jeez, to those I pizzed off, I just want football to start again. I enjoy nothing more, nothing, sex excluded of course, then spending a Sunday afternoon watching Miami football. I could care who the QB is, as long as he is decent. In my opinion and its mine and mine alone , after Luck and RGIII, there isn't a QB in this draft worth argueing over. Happy Easter to all and PLEASE FOOTBALL SEASON COME FAST.
     
  33. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Bill Parcells made the final call on picking Jake Long, instead of Matt Ryan. You cannot honestly blame Ireland for that decision. I'm sure you already have plenty of other reasons for considering Ireland a clueless wonder though, so not to worry. Maybe he'll be fired in the next couple of years and you can submit your resume'. Perhaps Stephen Ross will take a shine to you.
     
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  34. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    The fact still remains outside round 1 Miami has not been a very good team drafting offensive linemen.
     
  35. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I have to agree with that. I was only talking about Ireland not making the final decision to draft Long. If anyone want to vilify Ireland, they cannot honestly blame the drafting of Long instead of Ryan on him.
     
  36. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Do we know how much influence Parcells had while he was here? How much of say did he have when it came to drafting?
     
  37. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That was only 4 points higher than Matt Moore. You know, the guy we are trying to replace. And look at the weapons Ryan had. The only thing he was missing a LT and if you believe falcon fans, that's what is holding him him back.
     
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  38. cdz12250

    cdz12250 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To simplify it even more:

    Good performance=good pick.
    Poor performance=bust

    Draft position is irrelevant.
     
  39. dsteve

    dsteve Banned

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    i honestly cant handle the stupidity in the matt ryan jake long debate. first off, matt ryan isn't that good. he's barely above average. he has all kinds of weapons. HOF TE, pro bowl WR and RB and a new stud WR they drafted last year. The falcons put up ZERO points in the playoffs last year.

    what do you think he'd be doing in miami with nobody at LT, marc columbo at RT, no wrs outside of brandon marshell... i mean come on and think before you speak.
     
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Not anymore. Missing in the first isn't going to cripple your franchise anymore.

    Many people would have thought Brady was a reach if he was taken in the first. But even if he was taken #1, it was clearly worth it.

    Reaches are perception. Because draft value is perception. Now that a Brady happened, players who appear similar to him will be going higher than he did and will probably not pan out. So what is there value?

    The draft is a crapshoot, and now that the penalty is palatable, there should be less emphasis on "value" and more emphasis on the size of the pool to pull from.
     
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