Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 45

Thread: An actuall look at QBs taken in 1 st round since 2003

  1. #1
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default An actuall look at QBs taken in 1 st round since 2003

    Lets look at QBs taken AFTER the first 5 picks. Lets face it, with a few exceptions, QBs taken in the top 3 picks are uusally legit, after 3rd its a crap shoot at best. Yep, you got the Flacco's , Rodgers and such but not many. So here it goes. Again, just looking at first round picks. Hyde, you should actually look into things before you print them

    2003
    pick 7 Bryon Leftwich
    pick 19 Kyle Boller
    pick 22 Rex Grossman Non of these guys turned out to be crap.

    2004

    pick 11 Ben Roethlisberger Hit, a rare find
    pick 22 JP Lossman

    2005
    pick 21 Matt Jones Who ?????
    pick 24 Aaron Rodgers nug said, on his way to be a great QB
    pick 25 Jason Campbell Meh, you can have him

    2006
    pick 10 Matt Leinhart failure
    pick 11 Jay Cutler did halway decent and then ?

    2007
    pick 22 Brady Quin LMFAO

    2007 Jamarcus Russell taken number 1 overall, MISTAKE !!!!!!!!!!!!

    2008
    pick 18 Joe Flacco as I said, there are exceptions

    2009
    none

    2010
    pick 25 Tim Teeeeeeee bow. Opinions vary as wide as I95 is long

    2011
    pick 8 Jake Locker Meh
    pick 10 Blaine Gabbert Double Meh
    pick 12 Christian Ponder Triple Meh
    Never since I have been watching drafts have so many also ran QBs were taken in the first 15 picks. Then again with the new Rookie wage scale, they were a relatively cheap gamble. Outside of Newton, who got around 22 million, the rest really suck bad.

    So there it is. Since 2003 of the 16 QBs taken after pick 5. 3 have really turned into what one would consider Franchise QBs. 19% ratio turned out to be really good. The rest ? You can take them or leave them. Now, lets see who was taken in the first 5 picks from 2003 to 2011

    2003
    pick 1 Carson Palmer started off good but fizzled due to injuries and the rest of the team sucking badly

    2004
    Pick 1 Eli Manning Franchise QB
    Pick 4 Phillip Rivers Franchise QB

    2005
    Pick 1 Alex Smith One good year since he was drafted. Blame it on many HC/OC or what you will, outside of 2011 season, the kid has done squat.

    2006
    Pick 3 Vince Young EPIC FAILURE

    2007
    Pick 1 JaMarcus Russell Failure of biblical proportions

    2008
    pick 3 Matt Ryan Good QB, franchisesque, we should have taken him.

    2009
    Pick 1 Mathew Stafford Good but due to injuries I cannot say as of yet that he is a franchise type QB. Certainly better then anything we have had.
    Pick 5 Mark Sanchez Varied opinion from still learning to likes to bob for male apples on the weekends. Not a franchise QB.

    2010
    pick 1 Sam Bradford due to the Rams being cursed until time ends and injuries, the kid has not showed as of yet he is a franchise QB BUT, he certainly has the potential to be a franchise QB. Time will tell.

    2011
    Pick 1 Cam Newton again, varied opinions but IMO, franchise QB.

    So there it is. Since 2003 of the 11 QBs taken in the top 5 picks, IMO 6 would be considered franchise QBs. Thats 55% of the QBs taken that are IMO, franchise QBs. Thats a HUGE increase over ones taken after pick 5 (19%) that would be franchise QBs IMO.

    As a matter of fact if you look even closer, since 2003, of the QBs picked in the top 5, only 2 after pick 1 Ryan and Rivers , is considered to be a franchise QB. Again, the rest are also rans.

    Lets face it and the results above clearly show the evidence. If you choose a QB in the first round after the 2nd pick, the chances of him turning into a really good QB no less a franchise QB are very ver veeeeeeeeeeeery low. Results show that of the 27 QBs taken in the first round since 2003, and after taking out the first overall picks,( 7 ) that leaves 19 QBs overall taken the first round, of which only 5 were franchise type QBs. or 26% of the ones taken after pick 1.


    Whats the percentage of really good ones taken after pick 7 ? Same as the percentage of ones picked after pick 5. 19% of them turned out to be franchise QBs Roethlissburger, Flacco and Rodgers. Percentages show clearly after pick 5 in the draft, choosing a QB in the first round is nothing more then a crap shoot. Again, IMO, Tannehill will just be part of the 81% of QBs taken after pick 5 that will fail. 81%, Hyde should have realized there is a lot more then just blurting out first round QBs. 81% failure vs 19% success. Those type of odds keep the lights burning brightly in Vegas 24/7 folks.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  2. #2
    Consume Me Asteroids Champion Valentine'em Champion Try To Escape Champion The Wizard's Boxes Champion Funny Sheep Champion Traffic City Champion ASCIIvader Champion Egg Drop Champion Asteroescape Champion car game, don't drink Champion The Platforms Game Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 3 Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 4 Champion Jorinapeka Champion Pair Mania - Japanese Champion FLIXED BALL Champion Jennifer Rose: Restaurant Love Champion Aqua4Ever04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Age
    26
    Posts
    25,185
    Fist Bumps
    3,901
    My Posts Inspired:
    14,365 Fist Bumps in 6,559 Posts
    Rep Power
    1053

    Default

    No offense, but we've seen this thread created at least 10 times. And that's just in the last year alone.
    Week EIGHT picks against the spread just added!
    TOUCHDOWN!...CHAMBERS!

  3. This Member gave Aqua4Ever04 a FIST BUMP for this post:


  4. #3
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aqua4Ever04 View Post
    No offense, but we've seen this thread created at least 10 times. And that's just in the last year alone.
    No offense but I have not seen it and I have been here for more then a year. Hyde blatantly blurted out a bunch of BS. ALL QBs taken in the first round are not good. From where we are picking its an 81% failure rate for them. I have not seen that, please show me where that figure was put up. Thanks I have not seen not a one with the list of QBs and where they were picked and their overall success rate as a post or a thread in here.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  5. #4
    I drink your milkshake! Dol-Fan Dupree's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    23,101
    Fist Bumps
    2,421
    My Posts Inspired:
    11,429 Fist Bumps in 6,181 Posts
    Rep Power
    834

    Default

    Matt Jones was drafted to be a wide receiver

  6. These 2 users offered FIST BUMPS to Dol-Fan Dupree for a solid post:


  7. #5
    Motion 3:16 CaribPhin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    The Bahamas
    Posts
    13,966
    Fist Bumps
    6,120
    My Posts Inspired:
    6,380 Fist Bumps in 3,026 Posts
    Rep Power
    533

    Default

    The reason why this is dumb, not you, the post, is because QB's don't have theoretical position numbers attached to them. They're not destined to their number drafted. It all depends on who wins how many games one year, what position they have in the draft, who trades picks with who, etc. Draft position does not determine success. The perceived ability to succeed determines draft position along with a couple of variables listed above as well as things like injury history and off-field concerns. It's like when someone says plants produce oxygen, therefore plants are made for us, rather than we're here because plants produce oxygen.


    It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
    ~Aristotle

  8. #6
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dol-Fan Dupree View Post
    Matt Jones was drafted to be a wide receiver
    Take him off then, you do the math. % will not change drastically at all.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  9. #7
    'Parcells' Guy Laces Out's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Omaha, Ne
    Posts
    3,418
    Fist Bumps
    720
    My Posts Inspired:
    945 Fist Bumps in 601 Posts
    Rep Power
    89

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KingMotion View Post
    The reason why this is dumb, not you, the post, is because QB's don't have theoretical position numbers attached to them. They're not destined to their number drafted. It all depends on who wins how many games one year, what position they have in the draft, who trades picks with who, etc. Draft position does not determine success. The perceived ability to succeed determines draft position along with a couple of variables listed above as well as things like injury history and off-field concerns. It's like when someone says plants produce oxygen, therefore plants are made for us, rather than we're here because plants produce oxygen.
    Draft position+good performance=good pick
    Draft position+poor performance=bust

    The first round isn't for reaches, it's for sure(as sure as can be)players. Am I oversimplifying this too much?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  10. #8
    Consume Me Asteroids Champion Valentine'em Champion Try To Escape Champion The Wizard's Boxes Champion Funny Sheep Champion Traffic City Champion ASCIIvader Champion Egg Drop Champion Asteroescape Champion car game, don't drink Champion The Platforms Game Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 3 Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 4 Champion Jorinapeka Champion Pair Mania - Japanese Champion FLIXED BALL Champion Jennifer Rose: Restaurant Love Champion Aqua4Ever04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Age
    26
    Posts
    25,185
    Fist Bumps
    3,901
    My Posts Inspired:
    14,365 Fist Bumps in 6,559 Posts
    Rep Power
    1053

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mommabilly View Post
    No offense but I have not seen it and I have been here for more then a year. Hyde blatantly blurted out a bunch of BS. ALL QBs taken in the first round are not good. From where we are picking its an 81% failure rate for them. I have not seen that, please show me where that figure was put up. Thanks I have not seen not a one with the list of QBs and where they were picked and their overall success rate as a post or a thread in here.
    Why would I take offense to that? No need to get all chippy. Just saying that this literally gets posted every other month.
    Week EIGHT picks against the spread just added!
    TOUCHDOWN!...CHAMBERS!

  11. This Member gave Aqua4Ever04 a FIST BUMP for this post:


  12. #9
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KingMotion View Post
    The reason why this is dumb, not you, the post, is because QB's don't have theoretical position numbers attached to them. They're not destined to their number drafted. It all depends on who wins how many games one year, what position they have in the draft, who trades picks with who, etc. Draft position does not determine success. The perceived ability to succeed determines draft position along with a couple of variables listed above as well as things like injury history and off-field concerns. It's like when someone says plants produce oxygen, therefore plants are made for us, rather than we're here because plants produce oxygen.
    Not dumb at all. Hyde put in print 2 qbs taken after the first round have made the playoffs. With the above info it proves, taking his 2 guys into account and the three I listed that after the 5th pick, only 5 QBs have made the playoffs. That increases the overall failure rate for QBs taken after the 1st pick even greater. Using his 2 Qbs and what I listed above that means that a grand total, tebow included, of 6 qbs taken after the first overall pick have made the playoffs. Thats insane. Failure equals picking a QB, any QB with the 8th overall pick. History and percentages point to failure picking a QB, any QB after the second overall pick in the draft.

    Thats the point I was bringing out, after the second pick, not many at all, QBs have a good success rate. Hyde was trying to stess the fact we had better sure pick Tannehill or Weeden at 8 or the success rate after that is low. Well the list above clearly shows the success rate after the top 4 picks is clearly low. Point being ? No matter which QB we pick at the 8th spot, if we do pick a QB, odds on favorite is he will not be successfull no less a franchise type long term QB. Let me guess, you think that is not relevant ?

    After the first few are gone, ones picked after that are also rans with exception of a very few that turned into elite and one, Tebow, that is a puzzle. Thats my point.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  13. #10
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aqua4Ever04 View Post
    Why would I take offense to that? No need to get all chippy. Just saying that this literally gets posted every other month.
    I am not taking offense and getting chippy. I think I politely asked to be shown this list that is posted every month. Is that chippy ? So, waiting for the link of these monthly posts listing what I listed. It seems around here if one does not think in the same direction as a few select posters then anything and everything is attempted to change the subject. Personally, I don't care. As I have said and as you put it, not being chippy, I have not seen it. If it really exists, show me or, get off the subject of it being repeated please. I have better things to do then get " chippy " with electronic signals.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  14. #11
    Consume Me Asteroids Champion Valentine'em Champion Try To Escape Champion The Wizard's Boxes Champion Funny Sheep Champion Traffic City Champion ASCIIvader Champion Egg Drop Champion Asteroescape Champion car game, don't drink Champion The Platforms Game Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 3 Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 4 Champion Jorinapeka Champion Pair Mania - Japanese Champion FLIXED BALL Champion Jennifer Rose: Restaurant Love Champion Aqua4Ever04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Age
    26
    Posts
    25,185
    Fist Bumps
    3,901
    My Posts Inspired:
    14,365 Fist Bumps in 6,559 Posts
    Rep Power
    1053

    Default

    By the way,

    February 9th, 2012
    http://www.thephins.com/forums/showt...he+first+round

    December 12, 2011
    http://www.thephins.com/forums/showt...he+first+round

    Look at that, I got into the act in October.
    http://www.thephins.com/forums/showt...he+first+round


    EDIT: Sorry, I'm not trying to be thread police, I guess I'm just already sick of the same argument that we seem to have been going back and forth on for the past 6 or 7 years. I guess we need something to fill the void left by the great Chad Henne debate. I apologize if I'm being a stickler.
    Week EIGHT picks against the spread just added!
    TOUCHDOWN!...CHAMBERS!

  15. This Member gave Aqua4Ever04 a FIST BUMP for this post:


  16. #12
    mediocrity sucks Clipse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Roanoke, Virginia
    Posts
    7,936
    Fist Bumps
    2,305
    My Posts Inspired:
    1,897 Fist Bumps in 1,120 Posts
    Rep Power
    189

    Default

    Not counting the 3 drafted last year since it's too early to say, that's really only a 62% bust rate. 58% if you decide to not count Tebow. Now compare that to the 90% + bust rate for all the QB's taken out of the 1st round, and I'll gladly take my chances. You either take that chance, tank, or take no chance at all and be stuck in mediocrity for another 13 years. Your choice.

  17. This Member gave Clipse a FIST BUMP for this post:


  18. #13
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aqua4Ever04 View Post
    Well there ya go, 3 other times, good for you. Did not read a one of them. Now its 4 times but this time is has percentages and is actually challenging what a local rag hack reporter put in print.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  19. #14
    Consume Me Asteroids Champion Valentine'em Champion Try To Escape Champion The Wizard's Boxes Champion Funny Sheep Champion Traffic City Champion ASCIIvader Champion Egg Drop Champion Asteroescape Champion car game, don't drink Champion The Platforms Game Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 3 Champion Pair Mania - Japanese 4 Champion Jorinapeka Champion Pair Mania - Japanese Champion FLIXED BALL Champion Jennifer Rose: Restaurant Love Champion Aqua4Ever04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Age
    26
    Posts
    25,185
    Fist Bumps
    3,901
    My Posts Inspired:
    14,365 Fist Bumps in 6,559 Posts
    Rep Power
    1053

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mommabilly View Post
    Well there ya go, 3 other times, good for you. Did not read a one of them. Now its 4 times but this time is has percentages and is actually challenging what a local rag hack reporter put in print.
    Okay well I threw in an edit apologizing for being a stickler, but I rescind it. You don't bother to read them and decide you need to make a duplicate. So really, it's good for YOU.
    Week EIGHT picks against the spread just added!
    TOUCHDOWN!...CHAMBERS!

  20. #15
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by R&R Express View Post
    Not counting the 3 drafted last year since it's too early to say, that's really only a 64% bust rate. Now compare that to the 90% + bust rate for all the QB's taken out of the 1st round, and I'll gladly take my chances. You either take that chance, tank, or take no chance at all and be stuck in mediocrity for another 13 years. Your choice.
    How do you figure its only a 62% bust rate ? No way, far higher then that. Hey, if they take Tannehill and when he fails I am going to sit back and watch the same people hammer him that begged we take him. IMO, get thru the year with Moore or Garrard. Tannehill is not doing anything this year anyway.

    On top of that, I have no confidence in this kids foot holding up in NFL conditions. Not one bit.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  21. #16
    No riders allowed mommabilly's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Posts
    2,041
    Fist Bumps
    88
    My Posts Inspired:
    676 Fist Bumps in 437 Posts
    Rep Power
    84

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Aqua4Ever04 View Post
    Okay well I threw in an edit apologizing for being a stickler, but I rescind it. You don't bother to read them and decide you need to make a duplicate. So really, it's good for YOU.
    Mine is not a duplicate. Like I said, completely different reason why it was posted and entirely different body of content. But hey, Thanks for digging them up anyway.
    http://images.thephins.com/forums/signaturepics/sigpic3648_5.gif

  22. #17
    mediocrity sucks Clipse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Roanoke, Virginia
    Posts
    7,936
    Fist Bumps
    2,305
    My Posts Inspired:
    1,897 Fist Bumps in 1,120 Posts
    Rep Power
    189

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mommabilly View Post
    How do you figure its only a 62% bust rate ? No way, far higher then that. Hey, if they take Tannehill and when he fails I am going to sit back and watch the same people hammer him that begged we take him. IMO, get thru the year with Moore or Garrard. Tannehill is not doing anything this year anyway.

    On top of that, I have no confidence in this kids foot holding up in NFL conditions. Not one bit.
    You listed 13 QB's not counting the 3 drafted last year since it's too early to say. Not counting Russell either since he was the top pick. 5 were not busts. You do the math. In fact, it's actually only a 58% bust rate. Matt Jones was not drafted to play QB.

  23. #18
    Bringin' the Ruckus Killer Bees's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Age
    25
    Posts
    2,786
    Fist Bumps
    906
    My Posts Inspired:
    913 Fist Bumps in 534 Posts
    Rep Power
    89

    Default

    So we should just wait til we have a top 2 pick and then think about solving the QB position? Sometimes you gotta go against the odds to reach the top...

  24. These 3 users offered FIST BUMPS to Killer Bees for a solid post:


  25. #19
    Season Ticket Holder sports24/7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    14,719
    Fist Bumps
    7,005
    My Posts Inspired:
    5,220 Fist Bumps in 2,499 Posts
    Rep Power
    430

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mommabilly View Post
    How do you figure its only a 62% bust rate ? No way, far higher then that. Hey, if they take Tannehill and when he fails I am going to sit back and watch the same people hammer him that begged we take him. IMO, get thru the year with Moore or Garrard. Tannehill is not doing anything this year anyway.

    On top of that, I have no confidence in this kids foot holding up in NFL conditions. Not one bit.
    Why? How many games have you seen of him? What are you basing this on. What is it about his game specifically that you don't like?
    Follow me on twitter. Or don't @Adam_Vaccaro

  26. #20
    Season Ticket Holder sports24/7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    14,719
    Fist Bumps
    7,005
    My Posts Inspired:
    5,220 Fist Bumps in 2,499 Posts
    Rep Power
    430

    Default

    By the way, even using your system, the odds are still far greater you find a franchise QB in round 1 after the 5th pick, than finding one in any other round.

    You can't count any of the QBs drafted last year because it's way too early to tell. You're entitled to your opinions on them, but claiming that they are busts is extremely shortsighted at this point.

    2003: 0/4 : 0/9
    2004: 1/2 : 1/12
    2005: 1/2 : 1/11 (Counting Ryan Fitzpatrick as a franchise QB)
    2006: 1/2 : 0/10
    2007: 0/1 : 0/9
    2008: 1/1 : 0/11
    2009: 1/1 (I'm counting Freeman, but it's still not really determined) : 0/8

    To be fair to the opposing argument I won't use the 2010 season as an example because if you're drafted after round 1 you don't usually see the field that early so we don't really know. As it looks now I'd say Tebow was a whiff, and Dalton was a hit for the after the 1st round category.

    So going by 2003-2009 you have a 5/13 (38%) success rate at a franchise QB in round one (after pick 5) vs. a 2/70 (less than 3%) success rate in QBs taken in round 2 or later.
    Follow me on twitter. Or don't @Adam_Vaccaro

Similar Threads

  1. Fins vs Pats OT 2003 on NFLN Tuesday
    By frozenfin in forum Miami Dolphins Forum
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 06-10-2010, 05:18 PM
  2. Sosa Joins A-Rod with 2003 Positive test
    By NJFINSFAN1 in forum Other Sports Forum
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-18-2009, 09:07 PM
  3. NASA: 2 Trillion Tons of Ice Have Melted Since 2003
    By Celtkin in forum Science & Technology
    Replies: 40
    Last Post: 12-19-2008, 01:22 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •