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A serious look at Suck for Luck

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by padre31, Oct 7, 2011.

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  1. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Alright, I get the Suck for Luckers are not going away, fine by me, but no team disappoints it's fans more then the Miami Dolphins so why not a strategic look at SFLers and our competition for the #1 overall based on who already has a Qb?

    My MOST likely Top 10 in Aprils draft:

    1. 0-4 Rams: Sam Bradford
    2. 1-3 KC: Matt Cassel, as has been pointed out, our meeting in KC could decide the #1 overall
    3. 1-3 Jaguars: Just traded up for Blaine Gabbert, what makes them interesting is they traded their #2 pick in 2012, if they are ahead of us they are logical trading partners
    4. 0-4 Colts: Much depends on 2 things, does Painter continue to play decently? And does Manning come back this yr? Fans would say "no" but a player like Manning can in essence bully the organization into playing him, ask Favre how that works
    5. 0-4 Vikings: Drafted Christian Ponder, but the Panthers took Claused in 10, did not stop them from taking Cam Newton
    6. 1-3 Seattle: a real dark horse for the #1 overall, their Qb situation is holographic to ours, weak division though
    7. 1-3 Arizona: they just added Kolb, and paid him a boatload of money, they will pick Top 10, but figure to not take a Qb
    8. 1-3 Carolina clearly not in the mkt for a Qb
    9. Denver 1-3, Fox does not believe in Tebow, Orton is a FA, Elway a fmr Stanford Cardinal.
    10. 2-2 Browns, they have McCoy, but if they have a shot at Luck, McCoy would be Clausened.

    We fit in there somewhere, I see 4 teams that would figure to trade back, Rams, Panthers, Jags, AZ, 2 teams that truly need a Qb in KC and Seattle

    And then the colts, who could be in a position similar to the rams and cardinals, so much cap money tied up in a Qb they may not want to tie up more money in Luck, but then again for all the talk of the Cap, I've never seen it truly disallow a team from keeping or adding a player if they want to add or keep them.

    This is a weird competition as there are 3 important things competing:

    -cost/belief in the Qb they already have
    -the salary cap
    -adding talent

    Thoughts?
     
  2. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am not sure STL can afford to take Luck, as the cap hit from trading/cutting Bradford would be just massive. They might look to trade.

    Indy as well is a possibility to trade down, if their goal is to simply see if they can squeeze out another SB appearance in the year or two Peyton has left.

    Outside of that, I assume any team that lands at #1 will take Luck.
     
  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Anyone who wanted Luck, who had the #1 overall, can take Luck the salary cap bit is waaay overblown.

    The real game here is who will want to take him, and who would be willing to trade out of the #1 overall, assuming it is not "us" with the #1 overall.

    Thing is, if we do not have the #1 overall, we won't pay the price to trade up for it.

    I see Seattle, KC and the Colts as our competition.

    KC just is not good
    Seattle, imo Carroll is such a miserable bastard I could easily see him tanking the season with a smug smile
    Colts, Bill Polian all over, he would pull the trigger and let the cap problems be dammed, even if he had to release players to do it.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pod you can't forget about the Bronco's..Elway..Luck..stanford..No current future on roster.

    I'am seriously looking at the dynamics from an organizational POV, and it does make sense to try and figure out an ethical way to SFL if we lose to the Jets, however, you can only send word down from the office to the coach to experiment and play all younger player if you have a coach that is not in trouble.
     
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    good point, and Elway being a Stanford Alum.

    Edit on the way

    As for purposefully sucking for luck, just continue to start Colombo and Lost Jones, it will take care of itself.
     
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  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    BTW, key game to watch this week:

    Vikings vs Cardinals, for SFLers, a Vikes win would be a step toward their goal.

    As for the Broncos and KC, we literally control our own fate, we play both teams, losses and Suck for Luck is close to being a reality.
     
  7. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd give up a first next year. I have no issues with that at all.
     
  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO the Panthers, Rams, Jags and Cards would trade away the pick based on their belief in their current QB. As for the rest, I think that the Vikes are bad and play in a tough division and are our top competition. I think CK's speculation that Manning could come back before the end of the season and scuttle Indy's chances at Luck is very likely. And even if he doesn't, their division is weak enough that they could pull a few wins out. The Browns are playing well enough that I think they'll be out of the race. I also think Cassell will play well enough to take KC out of the race. I also expect that Seattle can get a few wins just from that long flight out to the NW and their weak division. That leaves Denver and Minny as the top competitors and Denver does have a one win lead. I think the Minny game this week is big in that race.
     
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  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    why vikes winning?
     
  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Worst team in a good division, they could easily go 2-14 or so, the other thing I've not seen from the Suck for Luckers is the NFL draft tie breaking system and it's ramifications for their hopes for Luck.
     
  11. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Way too early to look at that. Our third place schedule teams, Houston and Cleveland look a little better, and the NFC East is likely to have all 4 teams above 7 wins.
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Another variable you have to keep in mind, if Suck for Luckers are going to jettison hope for the season in favor of a draft choice, it would stand to reason the effort they would have put into being optimistic is focused on the rules of their hopes.
     
  13. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    "Jettison hope"? Padre, we're 0-4. There is no hope to jettison.
     
  14. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh I understand the rules Pad. But it's just not possible to really quantify it yet. Right now Minny has two undefeated teams in its division and we have two 3-1 teams. If Detroit or Buffallo craps out it could really change the equations.

    So in theory we would like buff to fall apart but still beat us.
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I heard a coin toss mentioned, but would think that is way down the list of factors, such as SoS, w/l vs common opponents etc.

    At least be professional about it...:lol:
     
  16. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hey, could you imagine the hype surrounding a coin toss for the #1 pick between the fins and Indianapolis or whoever. The NFL Network would televise it and it would get absolutely huge ratings.

    You'd have analysis of the coint, the guy doing the flipping, wind conditions in the building that might affect the toss, etc.

    It would be fantastic television.
     
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  17. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tie Break Procedures

     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is exactly the sort of effort I'm thinking of, not just a sigpic with records on it, but actual detailed thought down to the most unlikely of scenarios like you would do, if optimism remained, about the 4th backup inside linebacker.
     
  19. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Make that two key games in the Suck for Luck world:

    Vikes v Cardinals
    Colts v Chiefs

    Colts game figures to be huge, I'd like to see them get 3 wins soon.
     
  20. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Minny I think is in a similar situation to us - floundering at QB, struggling OL, struggling defense, playing in a division with 3 good to great teams. The only ways they win is if either Peterson catches fire or Ponder comes in and provides a spark combined with the defense stepping it up for a few games. They already lost to KC, and have 'Zona now. If they lose both of them, that would show just how bad they are.
     
  21. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Ponder will get reps as soon as Minny's season is put to bed around wk #9 or so.

    BTW, we could really use a KC win over SD, if it winds up being head to head, that should tip the scales towards us.
     
  22. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    SFL Big Board:

    1. Colts 0-5
    2. Rams 0-4
    3. Dolphins 0-4
    4. AZ 1-4
    5. Jags 1-4
    6. Vikes 1-4
    7. Eaagles 1-4
    8. Broncos 1-4
    9. Seattle 2-3
    10. Browns 2-2

    3 way tie at the top of the list, and I suspect KC is turning it around so I took them off of the big board and the Browns and Seattle both could come off of the list as well.
     
  23. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We could use Jax and the Colts to cancel each other out a little, split their series, get a win against Tennessee, etc.
     
  24. Caps

    Caps Movimiento Juvenil

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    Hope so, that team is playing decent and FINDING ways to lose. At this point I'm counting on Peyton forcing his way back in for the last several games and pulling out a couple wins to avoid getting Rodgers'd.
     
  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, you "know" I'm not on board with SFL, however I suspect 4 wins and a team has eliminated itself from the race, more or less, iirc the #1overall typically does not go to a team with 4 wins or more, so 4 wins and that team is effectively out of SFL.

    2 of the teams on the Big Board have 2 wins already.

    Colts and Jags play, we play Denver and KC and the Eagles.

    And denver plays KC 1 more time, now panthers are my darkhorse, but I figure with that much offense they will win some games, probably 3-4.
     
  26. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Here's how I have it:

    1. Dolphins 0-4
    2. Colts 0-5
    3. Broncos 1-4
    4. Seahawks 2-3
    5. Browns 2-2
    6. Chiefs 2-3

    Forget about the Rams. They're not taking a QB in the entire draft, much less one with the #1 pick. Not happening. The Jags and Vikes just drafted a QB in the first round, so they're out. Also, forget about Arizona. Kolb may be struggling, but they're not gonna give up on him after 1 year. No GM would admit a mistake like that, that quickly.

    I honestly thought the Seahawks would battle us for the top spot, but it looks like they'll screw around and get 5 or 6 wins in that crappy division. I also think Tebow will spark the Broncos into a few more wins. I've also made clear my opinion that Peyton will be back this year and the Colts will win a few.

    Maybe that's an optimists view, but we're looking good.
     
  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Disagree Hardkore, in this sort of reverse order, the team that is 0-5 first, goes into the "lead", this works backwards.

    We could wind up beating the Jest for example, Colts already lost.

    I suspect it comes down to 4 teams going into the last 3 weeks, and we play on the road in NE and Buffalo in the dead of winter.
     
  28. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Why would they be out? They didn't have to make a serious financial commitment to either Ponder or Gabbert. If they like Luck better than what they got this year, they can go ahead and draft him and still have less money invested in the QB position than the Rams do with just Bradford.
     
  29. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Even you might be on the train by then Pad.

    And I suspect that NE and Buffalo could be coming down to the wire so there is a reasonably good chance that we see starters playing at full throttle in both games.
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I've maintained all along that it is to early for this schmoo, 12 games is an eternity in the NFL, by January, who knows who will be where?

    Ever watch "The Color of Money?" with Newman and Cruise?

    Newman tells Cruise "if you are going to dump, then be a pro about it"?

    That is the genesis of this thread, to go a bit deeper into the real world possibilities of getting the #1 overall and who are competition will be for it later on in the yr.
     
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  31. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I understand, but it's fun to speculate. Gives a painful season a little juice.
     
  32. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Because as I explained with AZ, a GM isn't going to do that. When's the last time a team drafted a QB in the 1st round two years in a row? I think fans are placing a higher value on Luck than GM's are, just slightly. This isn't fantasy football.

    EDIT: Even though they wouldn't be financially committed to one of those guys, it still doesn't make sense to draft a QB in the 1st two years in a row. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just can't see it happening.
     
  33. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    I put us ahead of Indy for the simple fact that the Colts have Peyton Manning. I still can't see them taking Luck and letting him rot if Manning is healthy, ESPECIALLY if he plays this year.
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Eh, maybe later on, to me the season is just getting interesting coming out of the bye week, and with the minor injuries that should be healed up, like DTrain and VD and Dansby, if we come out and fall flat to the Jest and Broncos then we will, indeed, be sucking for luck.
     
  35. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    When was the last time you actually could draft two elite quarterbacks in a row and pay them less than you would have to pay a good free agent at, say, RB? You really can't argue precedent when there's a completely new situation; namely a quarterback driven league in which the top young signal callers just got mindboggingly cheap. I am not going to argue that either team will draft Luck if they get the chance. But I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility either. We can't really tell what a GM would do in that situation because no GM has ever been put into that situation.
     
  36. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Honestly, what worries me more than anything isn't a team like the Colts drafting Luck, it's a team like the Colts getting the pick and someone (Seattle, Denver) moving up to it. I wouldn't put it past Elway to give up that King's Ransom. So yeah, having the worst record is the only way to be certain.
     
  37. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    It's been a while. 70's or 80's probably, before the USFL days. It would just be EXTREMELY hard for a team like JAX, STL or MIN justifying a pick like that to their fanbase when they just drafted a guy with their top pick a year or two prior. Especially in St. Louis' case, where Bradford clearly isn't the problem with that team.
     
  38. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Exactly.

    I could easily see Jacksonville and Minny pull a Jimmy Clausen. It's going to take a bit more explanation, but then again, you're talking Andrew Luck, not Cam Newton (and look how Newton has worked out for Carolina and their fan base so far).

    St. Louis I don't see either. Not because Sam Bradford has been playing great so far - I think's he's been vastly overrated, to tell you the truth - but because his contract pretty much makes him the de facto starter anyway. With Gabbert/Ponder and Luck, you can actually trade one of them, no sweat. Bradford is literally untradeable.
     
  39. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    While I think those etams would take Luck, they have to be prepared to get pennies on the dollar for Gabbert/Ponder. I mean Jax traded up to grab Gabbert and they likely would have to take a 3rd round pick for him if they wanted to take Luck. Ends up being a terrible use of resources.
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    That is another factor to consider schmoo, Gabbert has 12 more games to show he can play in the NFL, could be he plays well making luck less attractive to the Jags.

    This is why, wk #10, unless we are 0-9, is really the time to start seriously looking at what is going on among our competition for Luck, for example beating the Jest and Broncos is not out of the question, if that happens SFL is on life support./
     
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