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2011 vs 2012 Draft: QBs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsbuck719, Mar 14, 2011.

  1. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    I feel like a thread needs to be made on this. A lot of you (almost every Dolphins fan actually) hate Chad Henne and a lot of you are pulling for a QB in this year's draft. But, let's be real. Henne is in the final year of his contract (cheap contract, might I add), which means if we stick with him and he fails hard, then he is gone. Bye Bye. If he shows a lot of improvement and plays well next season, then we bring him back and go from there, without wasting draft picks or other things on another QB this off season.

    Let's compare the QB draft classes in 2011 and 2012. Actually, we don't even have to compare. I'll just post the top prospects between each year and let you guys choose which class is better.

    2011:
    -Cam Newton
    -Blaine Gabbert
    -Ryan Mallett
    -Jake Locker
    -Christian Ponder
    -Andy Dalton
    -Collin Kaepernick
    -Ricky Stanzi

    2012:
    -Andrew Luck
    -Landry Jones
    -John Brantley
    -Nick Foles
    -Matt Barkley
    -Kirk Cousins
    -Terrelle Pyror
    -Austin Davis

    Walterfootball has 2 QBs projected in the 1st round of the 2011 draft, where as they have 7 QBs potentially projected in the 1st round of the 2012 draft. They also have Gabbert listed as the 8th best QB prospect in 2012, but the 2nd best in 2011. I understand the 2012 list hasn't been updated in a while, but it kind of just goes to show that a couple months ago, Gabbert was really a nobody. That's why I am scared of Gabbert. I feel like he has 4th-5th round talent from what I have watched of him, yet it looks like the media has hyped him up into the 1st round of the draft.

    2012 is LOADED with prospects at the QB position, whereas the 2011 draft has so many questions regarding the position.

    I think it is a no brainer to stick with Henne for one more year and if he fails, we pursue one of those QBs listed in the 2012 draft.
     
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  2. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Maybe it's just me, but it seems like every year there seems to be this idea of "Next year's QB class will be sooooooooooooo much better." And then next year it's the same story. I think the younger QBs tend to have a lot more stock put on them and then when they don't improve drastically in their senior year their stock plummets. Which is why I've never understood athletes that are projected to go in the first stay in school when nothing but bad can happen. See Brian Brohm. Will the case be the same for Andrew Luck?
     
  3. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    A lot of the QB's you list in 2012 are underclassmen, which means it is not certain they come out. You can't play the "next year" card. If you like someone in this class, think he's a leader and is an upgrade over your current starter, take him.

    Also, am I the only one who thinks Terrelle Pryor is not much of a quarterback?
     
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  4. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    right there with you.

    and as far as the OP, I'm not that excited about this year's draft class, especially not enough to trade up for the top 2 prospects. it's not even about comparing to next year's draft class. If I'm not that excited, then we go with Henne + vet soon-to-be-named, and improve the rest of the team.
     
  5. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, if you like a QB in this draft then you take him. You don't wait for maybes. That being said I think that most likely we will have to wait for next year just b/c the two I like early will be long gone and without a 2nd we don't have a realistic chance to trade up. The others I like are developmental types (Kaepernick, Ponder, Yates). I do hope we get one of those three (after a trade down), but unless they surprise I expect we'll still be looking next year.

    And I don't care for Pryor much either.
     
  6. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    Well, we know that these guys are coming out:

    Luck, Foles, Brantley, Cousins, Pryor, and Davis.

    That leaves Barkley and Jones as questions. I could see one of them coming out and one of them staying. That still makes the 2012 class much more dominant than the 2011.

    I don't think Pryor will end up as a starting NFL QB either, and I am a Buckeye fan. But, it doesn't take away form the fact that he still holds potential and still will be a top prospect no matter what position he comes out as. Anything can happen in one season. Newton wasn't even projected in the 7th round before this past season and now he is a top 3 pick in a lot of people's mind.

    I also think about it this way:

    If we finish with a top 10 pick, then Henne is gone and we have a shot at all, but maybe one of the QBs next year. If we finish in the middle of the pack, like this past season, then it's a question...but if Henne is gone and we need a QB, then we will still have a shot at all, but maybe 2 QBs. If we finish with a late first round pick (20+), then Henne stays and we use the late first on another need. I would take any of these guys if they were available in the 1st round and Henne wasn't on the team anymore:

    -Andrew Luck
    -Landry Jones
    -John Brantley
    -Nick Foles
    -Kirk Cousins maybe

    Whereas in this year's draft, I wouldn't take a single one of these QBs in the first round.

    Also, there is bound to be 1-2 prospects that come up from nowhere after next season, so that makes the list potentially stronger.

    Pretty much what I am getting at, is we need to wait one year for Henne. If he's great, then we re sign him, if he's average, then we have options (re sign him to be a backup, let him go, or draft someone with a mid first), if he's awful, then we take a top QB prospect high and they are already set with a great supporting cast.
     
  7. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    How do you know?
     
  8. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    They are all seniors this upcoming season...
     
  9. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Don't believe Andrew Luck is.
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you want yourself a QB with with good athleticism this year has an advantage..CKap, Newton, Gabbert, Dalton, Tj, can all scramble, escape and run.. In my GM world,Thats a committtment I made half way thru last season for the future of the position..

    Pryor isnt as good of prospect as Newton imo.
     
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The grass is ALWAYS greener. That's my word of advice here. The grass is always greener when you're looking at future drafts.

    One year ago, Jake Locker was considered by the "experts" to be a sure top 10 pick, the top QB in the 2011 draft class. Now, he's not a 1st rounder according to your walterfootball.com people.

    One year ago, Andrew Luck was a "lock" to come out in the 2011 NFL Draft.

    One year ago, Robert Griffin was being seriously pondered as a member of the 2011 NFL Draft class, presuming he would have as stellar a redshirt sophomore year as he did his freshman year.

    One year ago, nobody even knew who Cam Newton was.

    One year ago, Christian Ponder was considered by many scouts to be a bonafied 1st round pick (and may still be).

    One year ago, Tom Savage was considered by some to be as promising a young quarterback as Andrew Luck.

    Six months ago, many people kept evaluating Nick Foles as a member of the 2011 NFL Draft class.

    Three months ago, I considered Brandon Weeden as a member of that 2011 NFL Draft class...because it was just inconceivable that a guy his age that had already graduated would go back to school.

    Point being, a lot happens in a year. The quarterbacks class that is "loaded" according to your sources, whom I can guarantee have NOT truly held a microscope to said quarterbacks (because they haven't had to), could easily turn out to be nothing at all. Suppose Landry Jones and Matt Barkley don't much like the idea of competing with Andrew Luck for top QB taken and potentially top overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. They go back to school. John Brantley is terrible, I'm not even sure why he makes your list. Not sure why Austin Davis is there, either. Ryan Lindley and Brandon Weeden need to replace them. So let's suppose guys like Terrelle Pryor, Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles continue to look the way they've looked (which is to say, not enough), and that Landry Jones and Matt Barkley stay in school. You've got Andrew Luck, Ryan Lindley, a 29 years old Brandon Weeden, and then some guys that really aren't that interesting yet in Kirk Cousins, Terrelle Pryor (not well liked by his teammates) and Nick Foles (gimmicky offense).

    Why are we looking at that draft class getting all misty-eyed?

    I tell you what one year ago we were staring at the possibility of a 2011 NFL Draft class with Andrew Luck (whom I always knew would be #1 overall), Jake Locker was considered a 1st rounder, Christian Ponder was considered a 1st round (yes, he was), Ryan Mallett was considered a 1st rounder, you had a wildcard possibility in Blaine Gabbert (who's been on radar as potential 1st rounder since being recruited to Mizzou), a wildcard possibility in Robert Griffin who had done some crazy things at Baylor in 2008 before getting hurt part-way through 2009, a wildcard senior in Andy Dalton who was a winner and super productive. Terrelle Pryor was a wildcard for the 2011 NFL Draft, considered to have super talent. I mean, one year ago this 2011 quarterbacks class was looking pretty hot, and many of us argued as much.

    So be careful making this argument...because there's a catch 22 involved. If you're taking it for gold what these quarterbacks on your list for 2012 look like now, when they haven't been put under the microscope yet, and indeed haven't even come close to deciding if they'll come out, then you're stuck in a contradiction. If those 1-year-out estimates are so golden, then why not dip into one of the QBs in this current class that were considered so keen a year ago, like Jake Locker or Christian Ponder?
     
  12. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Most people felt like Andrew would come out this year as a redshirt sophomore with slam dunk #1 overall pick status and with Jim Harbaugh sure to leave Stanford. He chose academics over the NFL. What's to stop him from doing it again? What if, for instance, it looks like Stanford could really be a contender for the National Championship in 2012, and he could go back to school for one more year and come out with his masters degree? What then? If a rookie wage scale were to be in place by 2012 then that would significantly mitigate the financial risk that staying in school an extra year would drop him from #1 overall to, let's say, #8 overall.

    Point is the information quality about the 2012 class is extremely LOW. You don't know who is coming out, and the prospects themselves have really not been put under the microscope that they will be by the time they actually get drafted.

    It's like passing up on the 8 that's talking to you right now, because you see a girl 500 feet away that MIGHT be a 10, and she looks like she's looking at you. Except when 500 feet gets more to like 50 feet, you notice she's actually a 6, and she was looking at the girl next to you.
     
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  14. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    I'll bring up the point again about Henne. He is in the last year of his contract, which means if he sucks, he doesn't have to be here next year. If we roll with a rookie QB next season, we will be in the same boat as we were this past season. I can tell you right now, no rookie QB is taking us anywhere special. So, why not stick with Henne for one more year and test our luck?

    We aren't getting the top 2 QB prospects of this year's draft (Thank God, they are both overrated), which means we would have to settle for 2nd tier QBs in an already awful QB draft class. My philosophy:

    If Henne is good, we finish with a late first round pick (20-32) and we don't have to go after QB in the draft
    If Henne is average, we finish with a mid first round pick (11-19) and we are put in the same situation as now
    If Henne is bad, we finish with a top pick (1-10) and take the best QB available (which will probably be 1st or 2nd best)

    If he is average and we cut him loose, then we are in the same situation as now...meaning we will get a mid round pick, so we won't have a shot at a top QB in the draft (like now), so we look towards a 2nd tier QB (like now). I like the 2nd tier QBs much better for 2012 than 2011.

    Obviously many things can happen between now and next year's draft, but that could mean more potential prospects step up and become a top prospect, which would strengthen the class even more. I think it's almost a guarantee Luck will come out after next season, considering he should finish his degree.

    And Brantley isn't as bad as some people say he is. I watched UF a lot this year and he definitely made some terrible decisions and some bad throws here and there, but he also didn't have the luxury of talent around him that Tebow had. Yes, Florida still has a ton of playmakers and talent, but it was a pretty big drop off from the Tebow era. He just looks like an NFL QB when he is out on the field and he'll rebound this season (I actually hope he doesn't, cause I hate UF).
     
  15. PhinPhanatic

    PhinPhanatic New Member

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    with the lockout...

    How does this change who may or may not draft a qb? Many of the teams that need QBs 49s, Carolina etc have new coaches and cant even share their ideas with their new team let alone do that and orient a QB. Additionally other teams like Phi, Cin are looking to trade QBs but dont have the ability to do it. So what happens? How does the fact that the lockout means noone can trade QBs (or anyone) or get a new rookie QB ready to play effect who may trade for the QBs and who may decide to pass on one in the draft where they may not have with no lockout? Certainly it changes teams opinions on what to do especailly at the most important position.
     
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's not a matter of luck with Henne. We should have enough data by now to know full well that he's not the guy. He hasn't improved significantly on several fronts in 7 years. I don't know why he's all the sudden going to start improving now. The best case scenario is that the offense gets designed around him such to where some of his flaws are masked more effectively than when Dan Henning was running things. But the flaws are still there. Just because they're masked doesn't mean they're not there. Statistically going off trends, if Miami didn't run any play-action passes, Henne would have had something like 12 or 13 interceptions. But he still wouldn't have been running an effective offense. The quicker you move on, the less time until the team is ACTUALLY competitive. Right now, we're not. We're not going to win a Super Bowl, even if we mask Henne's flaws.

    And as for Brantley, I hate when people defend a guy that clearly hasn't done enough positive to earn his draft status, simply by excusing his poor play. When a guy doesn't do anything to EARN his draft status, then he's not a quality prospect. Nobody is a quality prospect simply by right, or simply by virtue of playing for a big school like Florida. You don't get to maintain totally unearned draft status simply by saying "his surrounding cast sucked". Forget Brantley. The fact that Brantley is on that list of QBs to watch for in 2012, and Ryan Lindley's name is left off it, merely shows how incredibly low visibility a draft position really is from a year out, and how stupid/dangerous it is to make significant personnel bets based on those evaluations (which are often based on not much significant).
     
  17. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    While my favorite QB's this year are Mallet and Ponder, Im not in love with either enough to draft either in the first round. I would rather use the first rounder to make the defense dominant or hell even on an offensive skill position. I feel like Henne has gotten a bit of a raw deal with Pennington always hanging over his head and the fans and media kind of clamoring for Penny. Give him a year where he doesnt have to look over his shoulder and I tend to believe he will look more like he did in 2009 though possibly better. If Henne tanks then we can look at Qb next year. Worst case we continue filling holes at other positions and when the time strikes we can move for whoever we want. You should never be so dead set on drafting a player at a given position that you pass up a better player at a position that is also of need. Just IMO.

    As for next years class..Luck and Barkley FAR exceed anything in this class if they come out and Foles could jump in to that group. I do not consider Landry Jones to be on the same level
     
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  18. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    For me next year's QB class will be all about Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Ryan Lindley and Brandon Weeden, though Weeden will be 29 years old and Barkley could easily decide to stay in school. Nick Foles could get in there, but right now I'd have those four being cleanly ahead of him.

    But counting on a future QB class is even worse than counting your chickens before they've hatched. Barkley could stay in school, Weeden could show that he's really not all that interested in NFL football (and quite frankly, it wouldn't stretch the imagination to say that based on what he's shown), Lindley could just suddenly tank or not take any step forward, and it wouldn't take much for Foles to never quite become a guy you want to hang your hat on.

    Oh and meanwhile, since the Dolphins are playing the "let's get better today instead of tomorrow game" with the Draft, they go 6-10, which puts them WELL out of range for Andrew Luck, in a year where the NFL has processed the new rookie wage scale and suddenly wants even more than the usual arm, leg and firstborn for a trade up.

    And there we are again...2012...still no hope at the QB position...because we never had the balls to step up and take a swing at the bat.
     
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