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Good news for those with cash

Discussion in 'Economics and Financials' started by my 2 cents, Oct 25, 2008.

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  1. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    I was going over some reports tonight and looked at some other data...and if you have cash available then opportunity is coming soon. Transportation accounts for 35-37% of gas costs and the transportation industry is reporting lower mile volumes......oil inventories are growing, demand for gas is down, inventories for raw materials in the manufacturing sector is growing, distribution and international traders are going short, key raw materials are plummeting ... propylene, ethylene, benzene, oil, metals, tallow, chlor-alkali ECU's and veg oil futures are ALL trading down....in 20 years I have never seen this at one time......IMHO....We are about to have a massive drop in CPI and consumer prices....gas is no where near its floor, and refineries are operating at lower levels, chemical companies are lowering operating levels.

    The down side is credit is dry, manufacters are canceling orders, and companies revenues are down and a drop in consumer prices will decrease margins and revenue further.... As for the election, tax revenue will be down with the loss in GP and therefor NP.....with increased taxes if Obama wins..prepare for a significant jump in unemployment...IMHO...now in the short term buying opportunites are going to be available...IMHO.
     
    BigDogsHunt and Celtkin like this.
  2. anditsgood

    anditsgood Active Member

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    i have to agree with you m2c

    just keep in mind that a recession is a deflationary perios by nature
     
  3. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    That's one of the bigger parts of the T. Boone Pickens plan. He wants, at minimum, all transportation of goods (Cargo Trucks, etc) to switch from Diesel to Natural Gas. That alone will reduce a significant amount of our Foreign Oil import needs, and switch (which I have heard isnt very had from a technological standpoint away from Petro Gas to Natural Gas as far as engines go, etc) to low costing ($1.50/gallon) 100% owned USA natural gas.

    We have something like 150 years worth of NG stores already.
     
    my 2 cents likes this.
  4. GreenMonster

    GreenMonster New Member

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    My Dad is very good with stocks, we talk all the time. He took much of his money out of the market at 13,000+, he is biting at the chomp to reinvest in some choice funds. I hope that 8000 is the bottom of the market for the public's sake, but anyone with money is gonna make a killing in the next 5 years plus, hopefully this keeps sorted out in the 4 years of Obama.
     
  5. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    How you get out of a rut and recession like this is to follow what Keynesian theory states, and thats to bolster the demand side of economics.

    Lets use the example of a restaurant. How bout a big chain, like the Olive Garden. Under Mc Cains plan, big companies would be getting a big tax cut. To realize that tax cut, they have to actually make money. So...Olive Garden gets a nice big tax cut. But does that tax cut do anything for the demand side? All of the seats in their restaurants are filled with the 95% that Obama would be giving tax cuts to. Wouldnt it make much better sense to put money in the demand side of things?

    Government spending creates jobs. Rebuilding bridges, needs workers. This funding comes from the Goverment. The mom and pop stores all along that road and bridge that get built...which plan do you think they want? Increased workers mean lunch, and sundries purchased in those local stores. The Greasy Spoon...now has a busy lunch period. I guess Im at a loss to logically not think that boosting the demand side at a time like this.....is actually much better.

    Also....

    M2C....the Presidents Economic Report in 2008, actually shows your theory on taxes is wrong.

    Non residential investment DROPPED during the Reagan and Bush years....It INCREASED during the Clinton years.
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, I can see an inflow of cash into tax free type of funds, and 8,000 might not be the floor Green Monster, right now Credit Uncertainty is driving the market downward, if Tax Policy Uncertainty is added in, things could become really ugly on Wall and Broad.

    Interesting post m2c, I've read that every 10 cent drop in fuel costs is equal to a 100 billion dollar tax break for everyone who uses gasoline, it could be more then 10 cents, but that is the idea.
     
  7. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    We have not gotten the bill ,...yet that says....COD......we have yet to even elect to pay the bill of 10 TRILLION dollars.

    The rest is speculative and can be argued with other reports but you and I have beat this to death...AND sir...I thank you for the way you have approached presenting your views...although we do not agree you have been very respectful and your arguments are well thought out and presented.

    Kudo's.
     
  8. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I thank you for the compliment....

    But it was you yourself that challenged us to up the quality of our posts.

    I think the credit goes to you as well.

    :up:
     
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  9. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    T Boone is taking it in the shorts and it might derail his wind power project...he is down about 2 billion in net worth I saw somewhere...........I agree with his NG projections though...good idea IMHO.
     
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