Keys to the Game – Miami at Jacksonville

Coming off a last minute victory over the New England Patriots, the Dolphins are 6-6 and within striking distance of the playoffs. Chad Henne had his best day as a starter; throwing for 335 yards on 52 attempts.

This week, the Dolphins face a stiff test in a Jacksonville Jaguars team that in many ways mirrors their own roster. The Dolphins are in a 4 game season now, and every game counts if the team is to prove that last year’s playoff berth was no fluke.

Here this week’s Key’s to the Game.

Jacksonville

1). Run the ball at the Miami defense.

This point is extremely obvious given that Jacksonville is a run first team. But, how the Jaguars run the ball is imperative to their success as an offense. The Miami Dolphins’ rushing defense has been on a downward slide since the opening month of the season. The Jaguars come into this game averaging 130.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 yards per carry as a team – good for 7^th in the NFL.

The Miami defense has allowed 637 yards on 131 carries over the last 5 games – good for 127.4 yards per game and 4.86 yards per carry. The Jaguars average 28.25 carries per game. At that rate the Jaguars could end up with 137.3 yards in this week’s game. If the Jaguars end up with that yardage total, in all likelihood they are winning the game in the 4^th quarter.

The obvious leader of the Jacksonville offense is Maurice Jones-Drew; a stellar running back that has proven he can carry the load as the featured back in an NFL offense. Jones-Drew, or “Pocket Hercules”, is both powerful and fast; a dangerous combination. The former UCLA star has excellent vision, balance and lateral agility although he does not rely on simply juking defenders. This is not to say that Jones-Drew does not make defenders miss, as he does with regularity. Rather, it simply refers to the way in which he runs.

Jones-Drew never allows his feet to stop moving, regularly generating yards after contact. He relies on his ability to stop and start, whilst changing directions as he continuously moves forwards. He does not give defenders the shoulder shimmy a great deal, or run laterally, looking for the big gain. Instead he relies on his vision and ability to set up blocks so that he does not have to juke many defenders. Instead, Jones-Drew makes his cuts at high speed, making it hard for the defense to make collective tackles. Jones-Drew does not fall into the trap of running laterally. Instead, he always run forwards, and is attacking the defense and their ability to flow to the football.

Jones-Drew uses angles a great deal as he runs and the Jaguars have endeavored to tailor their running game to Jones-Drew’s strengths. As such, Jacksonville does not simply line up and run the ball straight ahead at the defense.

Rather, the offense relies on a great deal of pulling linemen and movement to get Jones-Drew to the edge of the formation. There he can use his vision to find a crease so he can gain yardage. This aspect of the Jacksonville running game naturally stresses the Miami run defense.

Miami’s inside linebackers are not chase and tackle type players. Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder are good inside run defenders that can take on interior lineman and clog up running lanes. However, neither player is a side line to sideline player, and as such will have difficulty getting to the edge of the defense with regularity. Both linebackers will need to scrape down the line effectively in an effort to shoot the gap between pulling linemen to reach the running back.

Unfortunately for the Dolphins, neither Crowder nor Ayodele are true downhill players. Crowder does not have closing speed and will likely be behind the play rather in front of it. Ayodele is even more limited than Crowder in terms of range, but is a better overall tackler.

Regardless, the burden will fall on Miami’s outside linebackers; Jason Taylor and Joey Porter to set the edge; turning the run inside. Even then, Crowder and Ayodele will likely not be the first defenders to the ball. The problem for Miami is that Taylor has been eerily silent the last few weeks and is battling shoulder problems. Taylor can set the edge, but can be drawn up the field under the guise of reaching the quarterback.

Porter has never been a stout run defender, has seen his production decrease further in recent years. The former Colorado State defensive end is not adept at disengaging from blockers against the run. Porter may set the edge through position, but he will have to give ground in an effort to make a play on the ball carrier. The Jaguars will likely target Porter in the run game early and often, and if successful it could mean that Miami has a hard time slowing down the Jacksonville offense.

Miami’s linebackers are not the only issue facing the Miami defense. Since the loss of Jason Ferguson several weeks ago, Miami has had to rely on Paul Soliai at nose tackle. Soliai is an athletic player who has steadily improved in his time with Miami.

The former Utah Ute has the quickness to attack the gaps along the offensive front along with the base strength and size to control the middle by occupying two blockers. However, Soliai has a tendency to get trapped inside, engaged with his man, even on outside run plays.

Soliai has the lateral agility and foot speed to flow down the line of scrimmage. However, too often he remains engaged in a personal battle without disengaging and making his way outside. He does not do this in every situation, but it does happen more than it should. It is almost as if Soliai does not know where the ball is – I don’t think that is the case, but may be the easiest way to present my case.

Soliai does chase down the ball to the boundary, but predominantly that happens when he is running into the backfield at a slight angle rather than flowing directly horizontally down the line of scrimmage. This is one element of Soliai’s development that needs attention, but he can still create problems along the interior of the Jacksonville offensive line.

Miami must contain Jones-Drew and the Jacksonville running game if they are to have a legitimate chance to win this game. If Jacksonville is allowed to run the ball effectively, then David Garrard will push the ball down the field through play action passes.

The jaguars may even fake the ball to Jones-Drew only to have Garrard bootleg to the opposing side for easy yardage. Miami has trouble dealing with mobile quarterbacks, so Jacksonville may look to exploit this scenario as part of their rushing attack as well.

2). Involve Marcedes Lewis and Mike Thomas in the passing game.

The Jaguars and David Garrard are a better passing team than they get credit for. The Jags average 221.2 yards per game through the air in 2009. The Jaguars are somewhat conservative in their offensive approach, but that does not mean that the team cannot move the ball down the field through the air. David Garrard has thrown for 300 yards 3 times this season; not a stat many would expect to see connected with the Jaguars.

The Jaguars do like to be aggressive off of play action, which has been a problem for the Dolphins’ defense this season. The Dolphins pair of rookie corners has had trouble playing the ball in the air, especially Sean Smith, who has yet to register an interception in 2009, although he does have 11 passes defended.

In my opinion Jacksonville’s target in their play action passing game should be tight end Marcedes Lewis. The Dolphins have had trouble defending the tight end position all season long.  Lewis is not as dynamic a player as Dallas Clark or Jeremy Shockey, but that does not mean he cannot be a matchup problem for the Miami defense. The former UCLA star has enough speed to get down the seam for a big completion. Miami’s inside linebackers do not have the speed to stay even with Lewis down the field, so the responsibility will likely fall to Miami’s safeties Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell.

Lewis has seen his role in the offense increase over the past 4 weeks, having garnered 215 yards on 9 receptions – 23.88 yards per reception, compared to 220 yards on 17 receptions – 12.94 yards per reception over the first 8 games of the season.

In comparison, Miami has allowed opposing tight ends 798 yards on 50 receptions this season – 4.16 receptions for 66.5 yards a game, or 15.99 yards a reception. In all honesty, that is a staggering number considering that most tight ends are not the first or second target in most offenses. Miami has given up over 100 yards receiving to the tight end position 3 times in 2009. A good deal of the success seen by opposing tight ends can be attributed to the lack of speed amongst Miami’s linebacking corp.

However, to not mention the lackluster play of Miami’s safeties; Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson would be unfair. Yeremiah Bell especially, has had issues in coverage this season. There has been more than one occasion where Bell has become flat footed and stationary in coverage as a receiver comes uncovered.

Bell is an aggressive, physical presence that is best suited near the line of scrimmage. The more he is asked to cover in man to man coverage, the higher the likelihood of the offense making big gains. He simply does not make many plays on the ball. It may be a case of Bell not wanting to gamble and give up an even bigger gain, but that philosophy has not prevented opponents from having success thus far in 2009.

Bell’s bouts of hesitation have occurred on play action; an element that Jacksonville uses as a means to push the ball down the field. This combination of questionable secondary play and a solid running game could put Bell in no man’s land on more than one occasion.

Bell’s miscues have led to some big gains for opposing offenses. But his miscues are only part of the problem. Despite having good speed, Bell allows far too many completions in front of him. Bell does not intercept many passes, and this year is not making consistent plays on the ball as he has done in the past. Bell is having one his worst seasons in terms of pass deflections with 6. In two previous seasons Bell has accumulated double digit passes defended.

Far too often, Bell is allowing too much separation to receivers, especially on out routes. Against the Saints earlier this season, he was repeatedly victimized on such routes by Jeremy Shockey. Marcedes Lewis is not the same style of player as Shockey, but he is certainly fast enough to attack the seam and sidelines beyond 12-15 yards.

Play action may not be the only way Marcedes Lewis and the Jaguars test Bell’s coverage skills. If the Dolphins pass rushers are unable to keep David Garrard in the pocket, he may break contain and make a play down the field. Such instances will severely test the secondary’s collective fundamentals.

Lewis may not be the only way for the Jaguars to attack the Miami secondary. Mike Thomas is a solid slot receiver, and will likely matchup with Nathan Jones. Jones is a good blitzer and cover man when he is asked to cover a small area. However, if he is pushed up the field, his ability to make plays seems to decrease the further away from the line of scrimmage he gets. Thomas must be used to run skinny posts, bang routes and hitches. Miami’s linebackers do not provide much help underneath in coverage, so Thomas may a good deal of room to operate. As such, Thomas should find himself facing man to man coverage from Jones, which is an advantage for the Jaguars in my opinion.

Thomas is a quick, hard cutting receiver that can make plays on the ball when it is in the air. He is somewhat undersized, but is thickly built and will fight for the ball in tight quarters. If Mike Thomas has a good day, it is likely the Jaguars win the game.

Miami

1). Allow Chad Henne to throw the ball.

Many will assume that this is based solely on last week’s performance against the Patriots. That assumption is partly correct, but my reasons for saying that Henne should be given more chances are twofold. Miami no longer has a deep backfield, and therefore is relying on Ricky Williams more than they have previously. Williams is 32 years old, so his workload cannot increase exponentially without having some side effects.

Against the Patriots, Dolphins’ fans held their collective breath when Williams grabbed his hamstring late in the 3^rd quarter. I am not saying that the Dolphins must abandon their running game to favor the pass. Only that the coaching staff does need to allow Chad Henne more opportunities to move the ball. If Henne can take 3-5 plays away from Williams over the next 4 games, it will in essence have taken a full game’s worth of work from the Heisman winner. The lightened work load may benefit Williams and the team; as he may be more productive down the stretch.

Lex Hilliard is seeing action, but predominantly of 3^rd downs. Hilliard is very much a straight line runner who does not avoid contact well behind the line of scrimmage. The former Montana standout has not shown a great deal of lateral agility. Hilliard lacks the ability to jump cut or stop and start effectively; which in my opinion may limit his overall effectiveness.

Hilliard is a physical runner who attacks the hole with both speed and bad intentions. However, he does not make people miss in the hole a great deal; which has cut short some of his carries. Hilliard does need to garner more carries than he has done thus far in two games, but his running style may not warrant it.

If this trend continues, the only other way to limit Williams work load to a sustainable level is to give Henne more opportunities. The other reason I ask for Henne to get more chances to make a play is who the Dolphins are playing this week.

The Jaguars have 12 sacks for the season, with John Henderson leading the team with 3. Sacks are not the only measure of a pass rush however. A team could have 5 sacks but not come near the quarterback at all for the rest of the game. A defense could also register 2 sacks, but harass the opposing quarterback all day long. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, the number of sacks is indicative of the team’s ability to reach the quarterback consistently.

This could easily be shown simply by the number of different starting lineups along the defensive line. The Jaguars at one stage were using John Henderson as a defensive end, and have rotated players week to week in some instances. Reggie Hayward was the starting left defensive end to begin the season, but he has been on injured reserve since week 1.

Several years ago, the Jaguars spent 1^st and 2^nd round draft choices on Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves – both defensive ends. Unfortunately, neither player has proven to be the answer the Jaguars have been looking for at defensive end. Combined, the pair has 7 sacks in two seasons. Even with the injury to Hayward, Groves has been unable to keep undrafted rookie Julius Williams from seeing some snaps along with Bryan Smith.

Neither Harvey nor Groves has shown that they can consistently shed their blockers on the way to the quarterback. This does not mean that Jacksonville generates no pressure at all from its defensive line. Only that it is intermittent, or only nominal in its effectiveness. More often than not the pressure will cause the quarterback to step into the pocket, rather than actually being sacked. However, some of the ineffectiveness in defending the pass is due to the play of the secondary – which like the Dolphins has relied on a rookie corner.

Harvey will have his hands full with Jake Long at left tackle as Harvey is not a powerful player. The former Florida star is athletic and quick, but does not have a great deal of base strength. This is not to say that Harvey is an easy win for Long by any means. Only that Jake Long’s punch can give Harvey problems.

Long relies on his quick hands and powerful punch more so than his feet to be an effective pass blocker. Long’s punch should be enough to stymie Harvey’s rush in many instances as Harvey has shown that he can be stunned or even knocked back on his heels by such a move.

Harvey relies on momentum rather than strength as a pass rusher. This can be evidenced by the way Harvey runs the arc to the quarterback. Harvey has the speed to beat his man up the field, and the hand use to gain position. However, he does not dip his shoulder and drive through his man to the quarterback. Instead, more often than not, he can be ridden wide of the opposing signal caller.

I do wonder however about Vernon Carey’s ability to hold his ground versus a player like Julius Williams; who is a great deal like Miami’s Cameron Wake. Wake is much more explosive, but both players are exceptionally strong for their size and rely on leverage to be successful. Carey has had trouble handling a bull rush this season, although in most instances Carey has prevented all out penetration. However, he has been walked back into the pocket more than one would like to see out of the 6 year pro.

Jeremy Navarre has also shown flashes of being a powerful rusher, albeit he does not keep his hand active enough to capitalize on his created advantage. Navarre locks out his arms and keeps his legs driving, getting under the tackles’ pads, putting his man on his heels. But, Navarre does not feature a swim, push/pull or rip move with any consistency to clear his torso and attack the quarterback.

As mentioned, the Jaguars defensive ends biggest issue from what I have seen is their inability to disengage cleanly from their blockers. Most are active players who hustle, but they get into position to affect the pass many times after the quarterback has released the ball.

The Jaguars defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.6% of all quarterback drop backs (this includes sacks as a pass attempt – which leads to 271 completions out of 426 attempts). In comparison, Miami’s defense has allowed a 52.9% completion rate. If one wishes to see the percentage sans sacks it works out to the Jaguars defense allowing a 65.4% completion rate, whilst Miami’s defense is operating at a 57.8% rate. Jacksonville has the 22^nd ranked pass defense in terms of touchdowns allowed with 20 – good for 1.66 per game.

When Henne does throw the ball, Anthony Fasano must be involved in the passing game in the same manner as he has been the last two weeks. Fasano has accumulated 141 of his 254 yards for the season in the last two weeks. The former Notre Dame star has become a favorite target for Chad Henne recently, and has helped to expand the passing game.

Fasano’s presence will be magnified this week due to the fact the Jaguars love to run a 3 deep zone; giving cushions to the outside receivers – trying to keep plays in front of them. As such, Fasano must control the middle of the field and attack 10-15 yards down field. I would expect the Dolphins to have Fasano run a good number of outs and seam routes in an effort to exploit the linebackers and general coverage of the Jaguars. The Jags, from what I have seen, do not like to vacate the middle of the field often. That can result in a tight end receiving single coverage.

The key for Henne in these situations is locating Reggie Nelson, who the Jaguars allow to roam a great deal. Nelson is asked to handle the slot, drop off to help double an outside receiver or cover a tight end. The fact that Nelson can cover a good deal of ground helps when the Jaguars blitz. The Dolphins cannot simply run Fasano as their only short option, but they must include throws to the weak side as a means to help occupy Nelson, as he does typically take on coverage for the that side.

2). Pressure David Garrard.

The Jaguars offensive line is better suited for run blocking than pass blocking at this stage, especially given the fact the team is relying on two rookies; Eugene Monroe and Ebbon Britton to man the tackle position. As the Dolphins have experienced – having two rookies play positions of high importance can prove troublesome.

Britton has had his issues with speed rushers this season. The former Arizona Wildcat has had difficulty gaining the depth necessary to handle quick pass rushers. Britton’s struggles have led to his hands dropping near his waist; which in turn diminishes his ability to gain solid hand position on his man. As such, he can allow the defender to gain the advantage in the leverage battle. However, if Britton is not threatened up the field, he can acquit himself very well on the edge.

The rookie plays with good body lean and knee bend, allowing him to anchor fairly well, although he does need to get stronger in his lower body. If his kick slide is rushed, he will play tall and therefore allow the defender to gain leverage; possibly driving him backwards. For the most part Britton does well to sink his hips and absorb the rush. He does still give ground and needs to lock out his arms more often in such situations but does typically hold his man off.

Britton’s biggest issue is his lateral agility. If the defensive end can threaten his outside shoulder then redirect inside, Britton will struggle to maintain position. Britton tends to rely on his hands and positioning to win battles rather than his ability to slide laterally. Cameron Wake will likely give Britton problems due to his speed, but Wake can struggle to redirect inside consistently, which may favor the rookie tackle.

Wake relies on leverage a great deal to win his individual battles, and he will have some success against the rookie because of it. But for Wake to truly make an impact, he must disengage and drive through Britton’s inside shoulder after attacking up the field. Otherwise, Dolphins fans may be surprised how well Britton handles this matchup.

Jason Taylor may present a different problem for the rookie as Taylor will work back inside a great deal. However, over recent weeks Taylor has been eerily silent as a pass rusher. The Dolphins will need Taylor this week if they are control the Jaguars passing game.

Britton’s counterpart, Eugene Monroe has also had his share of problems this season. Monroe was considered one of the better left tackle prospects in the 2009 Draft. However, the former Virginia Cavalier has struggle in comparison to his less heralded running mate. Monroe has faced better competition on the whole, but regardless, his performance needs to improve.

Monroe does not use his hands as often or effectively as he should. Far too often Monroe is three steps into his kick slide and has not attempted to punch or redirect the defender in any manner. As such, he is often the second man making contact; which puts him at a disadvantage. Monroe has the athleticism to play left tackle in the league for the next decade, but his hand use could limit his effectiveness if not addressed.

Monroe does not have to rush to gain the necessary depth on his kick slide very often; however he still allows his hands to drop and separate a good deal; much like a player that struggles to accomplish the same task. Combined with his lack of aggressiveness early in the play, this allows the defender into his chest far too often. The defender can get underneath Monroe and drive him backwards into the lap of David Garrard.

This is not to say that Monroe play high, as he typically doesn’t. But with the defender gaining first contact he can have free rein in terms of his hand placement. If the defender gets his hands around the armpits of Monroe he can be manipulated easily, much like most tackles. As such, Monroe struggles to gain any leverage or control of the battle; which allows the defender to disengage easily. Consequently, Monroe looks to be lunging and reaching for the defender a great deal – which he shouldn’t be as he is gifted enough to mirror the defender.

The Jaguars offensive tackles are not the sole issue in terms of attacking Garrard. However, getting pressure in the B gap is a prerequisite when attacking the Jaguars passing attack. The Jaguars offensive line has had trouble picking up the blitz in this area as the unit has struggled to handle stunts and sliding assignments. More often than not, defenders are coming unchecked into the backfield and getting sacks.

However, blaming the offensive line alone would be negligent. The Jaguars’ running backs must do a better job of blocking inside out than they currently do. Whilst watching film it looked like the backs tend to filter outside rather than keying inside. Some of this may be due to the Jaguars having two rookie tackles, but this tendency does leave clear rush lanes on the interior; the shorter route to the quarterback.

The key for the Dolphins is that they attack the outside of the passing formation to cause the back and tackle to flow outside. Then via a stunt, twist or delayed blitz,  trying to get a free shot at the quarterback. However, getting a free shot at the quarterback is one thing, actually sacking him is another.

David Garrard is a mobile quarterback who can move around the pocket, or scramble for extra yardage. So, whilst the Dolphins must stunt and twist to bring pressure on Garrard, it must be done with some type of restraint, or the defense will allow Garrard to gain big chunks of yardage. If the Dolphins maintain discipline they can affect Garrard.

If there is a clear lane for Garrard to scramble through, he will take it, but if he is under pressure and cannot escape, he will likely make one or two bad decisions with the football. Those mistakes typically lead to turning the ball over to the other team. Again though, the key is to rush Garrard with some restraint, otherwise he will break contain and gain good yardage.

The Dolphins feature several players that can create pressure, and it does not come solely from their outside linebackers. The defensive line also gets into the act, lead by Randy Starks; who is having a stellar season, especially for a 3-4 defensive end. However, the Dolphins do not have speedy inside linebackers, so if Garrard breaks contain it will prove difficult for the defense to track him down quickly. As noted, Miami must be somewhat cautious when rushing Garrard, but if they do not apply pressure, Garrard has the weapons to win against Miami’s secondary.

In Jacksonville’s 7 wins Garrard has been sacked 14 times – 2 times per game. In the team’s 5 losses, he has been sacked 18 times – 3.6 times per game. Under those same criteria, Garrard has thrown for 207.6 yards in every loss, and 258.6 yards in every victory.

3). Make Torry Holt a big part of the offense.

At first glance, one might ask why I have neglected to mention Maurice Jones-Drew. The simple reason is that stopping Jones-Drew is highly unlikely given the trouble the Miami defense has had stopping the ground game as of late. I have documented the units’ failings over the past month or so, and I don’t see the defense suddenly shutting down “Pocket Hercules”.

The Miami defense may hope to contain Jones-Drew, but given the manner in which Jacksonville runs the football it is more likely that the former UCLA star reaches the 100 yard plateau.

If the Dolphins do wish to have a good chance to win this game they must structure their pass defense so that Torry Holt becomes much more of a target in the passing game. That may sound odd, but in reality the more involved Holt is in the offense in terms of targets and receptions, the greater the chances the Jaguars lose the game.

In Jacksonville’s 5 losses, Holt has 22 receptions for 274 yards – 54.8 yards on 4.4 receptions per game (12.45 yards per catch). In Jacksonville’s 7 wins, Holt has 22 receptions for 316 yards – 45.1 yards on 3.14 receptions per game (14.36 yards per catch). In terms of percentage of the total passing yardage in the same scenario, Holt has 26.4% of the total passing yards in Jaguar losses and 17.5% in Jaguar victories.

The only issue with this tactic is that Holt will likely be guarded by Sean Smith who is having issues playing the ball in the air. Smith should, in reality be better at this aspect of the game as he was a wide receiver at one stage of his college career. However, the opposite has proven to be true over the past few weeks. Smith does have 11 passes deflected this season, but only 5 have come in the last 7 games.

Holt is an excellent route runner and Smith in my opinion does not do enough to reroute the receiver in his area. The rookie typically plays outside leverage regardless of down and distance many times. His inability to reroute the receiver effectively has lead to some big plays as receivers have had relatively easy releases off the line of scrimmage.

My main concern is Smith’s lack of ideal short area quickness, which Holt will likely take advantage of by running snake routes, slants, fade stops and dig routes. Holt is a flawless route runner who always presses his defender’s cushion by driving up the field. His ability to attack every route makes him a tough cover, even at this stage of his career. Holt has lost some speed, which may help Smith prevent a long touchdown, but Holt’s experience will create separation, and catches.

Smith tries to maintain depth, so as to not allow the big play, but far too often he is not aggressive in attacking the ball when it is in the air. The rookie has a tendency to play too deep along the sideline, playing over the top almost in a dump and bail technique. As such, Smith allows the easy reception underneath.

One other issue that has me concerned about this strategy is Smith’s lack of aggression on tackles. Far too often the rookie can be seen reaching and lunging rather than applying his large frame to the task at hand. Vontae Davis is much more of a physical presence, and has delivered some solid shots on opponents. Torry Holt is not an exceptionally elusive player, but he can still make yard after the catch, especially against arm tackles.

The Dolphins may elect to help Smith during the game by buzzing a linebacker underneath; allowing the rookie to keep the play in front of him whilst being the last line of defense. However, Miami’s inside linebackers lack the ideal speed for such a task. Both Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele struggle to gain adequate depth when they stay at home in a zone.

If Holt is allowed an easy inside release, he can exploit the area behind the linebackers on a dig route. Whilst, it does play into the strategy, allowing too many easy completions in such a manner will make victory harder. Yards are yards, and if the defense surrenders too many to Holt, they will likely have issues trying to defend the Jaguars other weapons.