After a sweep of the Jets, the Dolphins must now turn their attention to the division-leading New England Patriots. Last week’s win over the Jets was not pretty by any standards, but was immensely important for the Dolphins’ confidence moving forward. The Miami offense totaled only 104 yards in the victory – the third lowest in a win in franchise history.
The entire team will need to show up in this weekend’s matchup for the Dolphins to come away with a win.
New England
1). Control Miami’s ground attack.
RB Ronnie Brown
The Miami Dolphins, statistically, have the third best rushing attack in the NFL heading into this weekend. But, over the last two weeks, the Dolphins have seen their rushing attack controlled more so than it has been in the past. Against the Saints the Dolphins appeared to have a good day running the football – tallying 137 yards on 30 carries. But, closer examination reveals that 68 yards came on one play to Ricky Williams; who had 9 carries for 80 yards in total.
Outside of that one large gain, Williams had 8 carries for 12 yards. Ronnie Brown had 16 carries for 48 yards; a 3.0 yards per carry average. Outside of that one run by Williams, the Dolphins managed 69 yards on 29 carries, or 2.38 yards per carry. Ricky Williams is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season, and Ronnie Brown is averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Against the New York Jets this past weekend, the Dolphins managed 20 carries for 57 yards on “true” running plays. In my opinion, a “true” running play is not a quarterback scramble, as it is not truly indicative of a defense’s ability to stop the run. Against the Jets the Dolphins managed a paltry 2.85 yards per carry.
Both of these totals are a full 2 yards below the Dolphins previous average of 4.83 yards per carry heading into the game against the New Orleans Saints. The New England Patriots must incorporate the tactics of the previous two defenses in stopping the Miami ground game.
If the Patriots can control the Miami ground game, it should make the offense much more inconsistent, as Miami is a run first offense. And, given the lack of a true threat at wide receiver and a quarterback making only his 5th career start, taking away what the Dolphins do best, should put the game squarely in the hands of the Patriots.
Interestingly enough, the Dolphins offensive line has had trouble with one-gapping defenses all season long outside of the Colts game. This style of defense has given the interior lineman; the center and both guards in particular, problems in terms of completing their assignment. Donald Thomas continues to play with power rather than technique and footwork.
RG Donald Thomas
The former UCONN standout continues to allow his feet to become static, with his knees locked rather than bending at the knees and moving his feet. Whilst Thomas is powerful, he has not shown a consistent ability to readjust his hand after initial contact.
As a result, Thomas does not always lock on to his man. Instead, Thomas will rely on his punch, to a fault, many times believing his man is controlled only to see the defender work himself free to make a play. Thomas needs to focus on getting his hands on his man’s torso and maintaining contact by moving his hands at a higher rate than he currently does. When Thomas does lock on, he will try and overpower his man with his upper body rather than keeping his feet alive, staying in front of his man.
As such, any defender who is powerful, and can use their hands to disengage will leave Thomas flatfooted and out of position. The former UCONN Huskie has decent straight line speed, but he is not very mobile when asked to redirect laterally. He can open his hips adequately, but far too often he plays without the necessary knee bend to facilitate great lateral dexterity.
The patriots will need to utilize line stunts and twists in an effort to put Thomas in positions where he does not excel. The Patriots do have trouble generating consistent penetration as many of their front line defenders can have difficulty disengaging from their blockers. This is not say that the Patriots cannot disengage, but simply that they do not have a dominant up the field player along the front.
Vince Wilfork can control the middle and overpower smaller offensive lineman, but he does not simply blow up plays deep in the backfield. He can make plays behind the line of scrimmage, but those are mostly made by his ability to stand his ground and fight through a double team. Not necessarily due to his ability to defeat his man off the snap, and get 2+ yards in the backfield.
NT Vince Wilfork
Mike Wright is a hard working player who does flash some ability, but gets the job done through desire and work ethic over supreme athletic ability. He has decent initial quickness, but is somewhat limited in his ability to adjust his route on the fly due to less than stellar lateral agility.
Ty Warren is probably the most athletic player amongst the starting defensive lineman, and is capable of utilizing a 3 technique in effort to gain penetration in the B gap. Warren’s ability to win matchups against both Donald Thomas and Vernon Carey will go a long way in determining the success of the Patriots defense in slowing down the Miami rushing attack.
The Patriot defense typically faces 56.85 plays per game in 2009, with 24.43 of them being running plays. In contrast, the Miami offense typically runs the ball 33.71 times per game. If the Patriots allow the Dolphins to run that many rushing plays given the defense’s per carry allowed average of 4.5 yards that would equate to the Dolphins having 151.69 yards rushing. Now, as mentioned earlier the Dolphins have averaged 2.38 and 2.85 yards per carry over their last two games outside of one run by Ricky Williams.
For New England to have the best success in controlling Miami’s ground game they need to attack the run on first down. (These numbers will be extrapolated more later on) Over the first four starts of Chad Henne’s career, the Dolphins have called running plays 59.26% of the time on first down. Also, Miami has run the ball on a “true” running plays (non QB scrambles) 129 times. 64 of those runs have come on first down.
If the Dolphins continue to be this predictable in their rushing attack, the Patriots could have a major advantage in their ability to shut down the Miami rushing attack.
2). Isolate Benjamin Watson on Miami’s linebackers or safety Yeremiah Bell.
TE Benjamin Watson
Thus far in 2009, the Dolphins defense has had serious issues with athletic tight ends who are vertical threats in the passing game. On average, the Dolphins give up 236 yards per game through air. 30.32% of that yardage comes from the tight end spot. Miami allows 4.14 receptions and 71.57 yards per game to every tight end it has faced this season. That works out to a 17.29 yards per catch average.
There were two games this season where a tight end did not have any catches, but one game was against Buffalo who was essentially down to their third string tight end.
Benjamin Watson is averaging 14.8 yards per reception this season and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns, with 4. Given the numbers I outlined, Watson could be in for a huge day against the Miami defense. If Watson is incorporated early in the game, it could prove to be a disasttous for the Miami defense as the coverage will now have to focus on the tight end position as well as Wes Welker and Randy Moss.
Miami will have to use one safety over the top of Moss at all times; and in all likelihood that will be Gibril Wilson. If so, then Yeremiah Bell will draw coverage on Watson and most underneath routes. If Bell is isolated on Watson, it is a clear advantage for the Patriots.
The Patriots have used Watson to attack the end zone when they have gotten within the 30 yard line on many occasions this season. I would look for the Patriots to continue that trend this week as the Dolphins have given up 3 TD’s to tight ends as well.
TE Dallas Clark shakes off safety Gibril Wilson
Watson has the speed to attack the defense vertically; a key component in Miami’s struggles to defend the tight end. Watson has shown that he can beat safeties down the field on skinny posts, corner and go routes, all of which have posed problems for Bell this season.
The Dolphins safeties have been victimized this season in part due to the lack of athleticism on behalf of the Miami linebackers. None of Miami’s inside linebackers have the speed or athleticism to consistently cover tight ends, even in hook zones. Put simply, the Dolphins inside linebackers do not play the ball or receiver well, making them a serious liability. As such, the Dolphins have had to rely on their safeties to handle the opposition’s tight ends a great deal, and they too have had their issues in this regard.
Miami’s safeties, and in particular Yeremiah Bell have been victimized by tight ends that can attack his cushion, forcing him to have turn and run. Bell is a little limited in his range, and is quite frankly struggling this season. Often times, it is not the vertical route itself that is the issue for Bell, but when the tight end is able to run a deep out at around 12-15 yards. This route in particular has been an Achilles heel for Bell this season. Jeremy Shockey and Dustin Keller abused Bell for big plays over the past two weeks on just such a route.
Safety Yeremiah Bell
Bell is best when he is allowed to play closer to the line of scrimmage, not in man to man coverage. The Patriots have the personnel to cause Bell to either have to help with Randy Moss, or isolate him on Watson. If the Patriots allow Bell to make plays on short routes in front of him he is at his best; these plays allow him to be a physical hitter whilst covering a short area. The further Bell is away from the line of scrimmage, the less of a factor he becomes this season.
As mentioned, Bell is more of a physical presence than pass defender. He also has a nasty habit of allowing the completion in front of him with great regularity. Bell does not intercept many passes, nor has he managed to get his hands on many balls this season. Bell has had double digit totals for passes defended in two of his last three seasons – he played in only one game in 2007 and did not finish it.
Over Bell’s career, he has shown an ability to get his hands on the football at a much higher rate than he has done thus far. In 2009, he has only one pass defended, and that came in the first game against Atlanta on a pass to Tony Gonzalez. The last time Bell had a total this low was in his rookie year when he appeared in 13 games and had 10 tackles for the season.
The more Watson is involved in the passing game, especially early, the harder it will be for the Miami defense to contain Welker or Moss; likely leading to a big day for one, if not both receivers against Miami’s rookie corners.
3). Find Sean Smith and make him be a physical presence in this game.
Miami comes into this game starting two rookie corners along with working in rookie safety Chris Clemons. Much has been made about the play of both corners, as neither has appeared to be simply awful. Many Dolphins fans have proclaimed 2nd round pick Sean Smith to be the next great corner in the Miami secondary. However, after 7 games, there appear to be areas of Smith’s game that can be exploited.
CB Vontae Davis
Sean Smith does not possess typical size for a corner, rather he has the stature of a safety if not the build at 6’3’’ 214 lbs. As Smith is larger than most corners, he does influence the throws that he will likely see as he can compete for jump balls and has the natural height to negate the mismatches larger receivers generate. But, his size also brings some negatives as well.
Smith is not an explosive player, though nor is he lumbering. The former Utah product is smooth rather than explosive which does affect his ability to explode out of his breaks and close on the ball. Miami’s other rookie corner; Vontae Davis is much more of an explosive athlete who relies on his ability to drive on the ball. Davis made two big hits in his first start of the season against the Jets. Smith has yet to register one good stick in any game this season.
Whilst Smith can have issues in exploding out of his breaks; which does allow the receiver space his length has allowed him still tip the ball away. The rookie has 8 pass deflections thus far this season – which leads the Miami secondary. Smith has also had several chances at interceptions but has yet to hold onto one.
So, whilst he can be beaten on crossing routes due to his lack of lateral explosion, Tom Brady cannot be behind with his throws, as it will give Smith chances to make plays he should be receiving. Unfortunately for Smith and the rest of the Dolphins’ defense, Brady looks as though he has removed any rust that may have been present in his game.
Smith is not as physical a player as one might imagine, given his dimensions. In reality Smith is much more of a drag down tackler than a player who will stick his nose in – punishing ball carriers. This is one area that I would look to exploit against the rookie this Sunday. The Patriots offense uses a great deal of screens and short passes that allow their players to generate yards after the catch. Running such plays at a less than physical tackler on the perimeter could lead to some big gains for the New England offense.
CB Sean Smith
The more often the Patriots make Sean Smith the primary tackler, the greater the chance a player such as Kevin Faulk will break a tackle and gain extra yardage. Smith’s lack of physicality will be exploited by the Patriots this week; there are too many possible extra yards for the offense not to do so.
Another way to attack the rookie is to take advantage of his tendency to look in for the snap of the ball rather than focusing on his man. I am not a fan of this technique, as it allows the receiver to get a much cleaner release than he ought to, given Smith’s length. Smith relies on playing outside leverage and forcing his man inside towards safety help; that has typically come in the form of Gibril Wilson.
However, playing outside leverage can allow easy completions of slants, posts, skinny posts and go routes if the safety help is late, or if there is no real jam at the line of scrimmage. Smith does not jam his receiver often enough for my liking and has allowed some big gains to his side of the field. Braylon Edwards has routinely beaten Smith on skinny posts in two games versus the rookie this season.
The reason a jam is important when using outside leverage is that there is actually no one between the receiver and the ball. The defender is on the outside and must work back into an inside trailing position – which is where safety help can take over in terms of providing an inside presence on the route. But without a jam, the receiver has too much space to make the catch. Jamming the receiver throws off the timing of the route and gives the safety time to get outside and on top of the receiver.
QB Tom Brady
Getting on top of the receiver is key as a safety can be influenced to stay in the middle of the field via a quarterback’s eyes or via route combinations. As such, any hesitation by a safety to gain depth and width means that they are now likely behind the receiver rather than over the top; giving the quarterback more space to squeeze the ball into.
If the corner had jammed the receiver, that hesitation by the safety could be masked due to the fact the receiver would need more time to get into his route. If Smith continues this tactic of giving a relatively free inside release, the Patriots could find themselves with some big plays coming off of slant routes. Tom Brady gets the ball out faster than most quarterbacks, so any free release will garner his immediate attention. Brady could have a field day completing simple short passes before Smith has even truly reacted to the route; allowing the New England offense to stay on the field, chewing up yardage.
There are many aspects to Sean Smith’s game that are appealing, but there equally as many negative aspects that make him a viable target for the Patriot offense. The Patriots offense uses too many of the routes that can give Smith problems for this matchup to favor the rookie.
Miami
1). Get in the face of Wes Welker.
WR Wes Welker
Earlier in the season, Wes Welker missed two games due to injury. Over that span the Patriots offense simply did not show the same continuity the unit has become known for. Welker is in many ways, the cog that keeps the offense on track. The former Texas Tech star has proven to be the best slot receiver in the NFL over the last 4 years.
Obviously, Welker benefits from playing with both Randy Moss and Tom Brady – that is undeniable. Many will be asking why I have not made stopping Randy Moss the number one priority for the Dolphins secondary that features two rookie starters in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. My reasons are simple; one is that the Miami defense has little chance of stopping Moss all together, and chances are, at best hold him under 100 yards. Also, in defending Moss, almost every defense will commit a safety over the top, or some sort of “help” defense to that side of the field.
Both of those tactics are what most defenses do, to varying degrees of success. But, if the offense is not on the field continuously, it is due to controlling Wes Welker. It limits Moss’ numerical chances to hurt the Miami secondary, which is important.
This line of thinking is typically displayed by the Dolphins’ offense, as it looks to limit the number of times their defense sees the field. However, over the last two games, the offense has not won the time of possession battle and the defense has worn down as the game has progressed.
Randy Moss has 43 receptions on 67 attempts – a 64.18% connection rate, with 9 plays of 20+ yards and 1 play of 40+ yards. Moss has also accounted for 30 first downs whilst averaging 13.1 yards per reception.
Wes Welker has 46 receptions on 62 attempts – a 74.19% connection rate, but with only 2 plays of 20+ yards. It must be mentioned, that Welker did miss 2 games due to injury. During that time, Julian Edelman filled in for Welker and provided 11 receptions on 21 attempts to him, and 5 first downs. If we add those numbers to Welker’s totals we end up with 57 receptions on 83 attempts and 32 first downs. I do this as Edelman played in the same spot and role as Welker during his absence.
QB Tom Brady
Tom Brady has attempted 273 passes thus far this season, with 83, or 30.40% of them aimed at the position in the offense Wes Welker occupies. In contrast, Randy Moss has been targeted 67 times or 24.54% on all of Brady’s attempts. The Patriots’ offense has 105 first downs via the pass, with Welker accounting for 32, or 30.47% of them, but again he has only 2 plays of 20+ yards.
However, targeting a receiver is only half of the equation, with Edelman’s numbers included as Welker’s due to the position and role within the offense, Welker would have had 57 receptions. Brady has completed 179 of his 273 throws, and as such Welker’s adjusted 57 receptions would account for 31.84% of all completions. Randy Moss’s 43 receptions would have, in comparison, accounted for 24.02% of Brady’s completions thus far this season.
Welker in essence is the Patriots short passing game, and they use him to generate first downs that help keep the offense on the field. So far, both Moss and Welker have 4 TD’s each, with neither truly distinguishing themselves in this regard. But, as mentioned, Moss has 9 receptions of 20+ yards and 1 40+ yard receptions compared to Welker’s 2 receptions of 20+ yards.
The question is how exactly do the Dolphins go about trying to slow down Wes Welker? In my mind, the Dolphins must do their best to disrupt the timing between Welker and Brady. To do that, the Dolphins need to press Welker a good deal of the time. But simply pressing Welker will not do the trick as the Patriots will move Welker around, and the former Texas Tech star has learned how to defeat press coverage. Therefore the Dolphins may also choose to buzz a linebacker into the flats as well, whilst dropping the corner off or to the outside. If Welker is staggered back from the line of scrimmage, the Dolphins must punish him as much as possible in the 5 yard allotted area.
I mention the outside, as many times Welker’s routes are outside breaking routes, or option routes. Welker is used to run bang routes a great deal, or screens. Buzzing the linebacker out and sliding the corner outside may help contain both routes to some degree as the defense will already be moving players into those areas.
OLB Joey Porter
But simply defending Welker to the outside is also not the answer as the Patriots will use Welker to run slants and crossing routes in an attempt to create natural separation for him within the passing game. The Patriots also move Welker inside and out which also limits how many times the Dolphins can mix and match these coverages.
As such, the Dolphins may try to blitz from a press position as another way of controlling the passing game in general. If Welker lines up in the slot, the Dolphins may choose to send the corner from such a position. The defender should have a short corner to the quarterback. Given how much the Patriots line up in the shotgun, getting pressure quickly is key to slowing down the offense as well. The Dolphins have had trouble consistently generating pressure this season; and one reason is the lackluster play of Joey Porter.
Thus far, Joey Porter has not had a good season, and has in many ways been almost invisible on the field. Porter has 12 total tackles (10 solo, 2 assisted), 2.5 sacks and 1 FF, and is on pace for 27 tackles for the season. That total, would be 20 tackles less than his career low of 47 in 2008. Before last year, Porter averaged 63 total tackles a season over 7 seasons. Porter is just not making as many plays as he has done before, and that must change if the Dolphins are to improve as a defense.
Currently, there are 15 other Dolphins defenders who have more tackles than Porter, who also has registered only half a sack in his last 4 games. If Porter continues to play very much in the background, the Dolphins will need to find ways to generate pressure, and bringing people from the secondary may be a necessity rather than an option.
CB Nate Jones
Now, obviously Miami will not be the only team that has tried to bring pressure from the slot, but the defense must incorporate such concepts if they are to slow down the Patriots passing game. Tom Brady and company will make adjustments, so the corner blitz may only be effective 2-3 times at best, but the timing of these plays will go a long way to determining their success. Regardless, it is clear that if the Dolphins are to control the Patriots through the air, the best way is to limit the effectiveness of Wes Welker.
The Dolphins may not generate enough of a pass rush from their front 7 to begin with, and given Porter’s struggles, it may be better to ask him to drop back into coverage a bit. If the Dolphins do this, it will be a new wrinkle in the defense, and it may help to put Porter in better position to make plays.
One last factor that must be noted is that the Dolphins’ nickel corner, Nathan Jones, is a physical player that is better in a shortened area rather than man to man coverage. Jones is a good blitzer from his corner position as well, which means in my mind that in order to be the most successful, Jones should be asked to blitz and play a short zone. Such traits may make Jones a solid choice to drop in the outside short zone I described earlier. Basically, the Dolphins would play to their players’ strengths in trying to stop Welker and the Patriots – something that never hurts.
2). Allow Chad Henne to throw the ball more on first down.
When most fans think of the 2009 Miami Dolphins, they think of the Wild Cat, and believe the Dolphins are a run first team; which is not necessarily true if one simply looks at the numbers. Overall, the Dolphins have run the ball 236 times out of 470 offensive plays, or 51.30% of the time. Those numbers may surprise most fans that do see the Dolphins as a run first team, which is primarily three yards and a cloud of dust.
QB Chad Henne
However, as with most stats, looking closer usually gives you a better idea of what is truly going on with how Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning is calling plays for the Dolphins. And, in particular, what the play calling has been like since Chad Henne became the starting quarterback.
Thus far, Henne has completed 59.7% of his passes, for 771 yards, 4TD’s, 3 INT’s and 14 sacks. But, outside of the Monday night game against the New York Jets, Henne has completed only 55.1% of his passes. Please note that these numbers include the playing time he saw after coming into the San Diego Chargers game.
However, I want to really examine how Henne has done since he has been named the starter. Over that time, Henne has completed 64 of 105 passes (60.95%) for 679 yards (169.75 yards per game), 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s along with 13 sacks. Even though looking at those numbers it appears Henne has been successful, as mentioned, he has completed only 55.1% of his passes outside of the Monday night game.
After Ted Ginn’s performance this past weekend, many have wondered if the coaching staff has mismanaged the mercurial receiver over the past 23 games as he has not been back on many kick or punt returns. In my opinion, the Dolphins have not managed Chad Henne effectively over the last few games, especially as the offense has struggled at times with its consistency and ability to close out games. The loss to the New Orleans Saints comes to mind as the Dolphins offense in the second half was unable to chew up the clock and help end the game.
Up until the 4th quarter of that game, Chad Henne had dropped a total of 5 times on first down. He was sacked on two of them; which statistically means he was 2 for 3 on first down until the 4th quarter. Henne certainly should have had more opportunities to throw the ball, especially when the Dolphins had a lead. The Saints would be coming after the passer, so screens and short hitches and curls could have been used to help stay ahead of the chains. But, as noted, the coaching staff gave Chad Henne 5 total opportunities to throw.
OC Dan Henning
Whilst breaking down the numbers it appears that Chad Henne is actually his most effective when he is allowed to throw on first downs. Over the last 4 games, Henne has dropped back to pass a total of 44 times on first down. He has been sacked twice, scrambled twice and spiked the ball once. So, in reality, he has thrown the ball 38 times if you count the spike as a throw. Henne has completed 23 of 38 passes (60.52%) with 2TD’s on first downs. Remember that overall he has completed 59.7% of his passes and only 55.1% outside of the Monday night game.
Here is the puzzling statistic though, given the fact the Henne has completed 60.52% of his passes for 225 yards on first down, the Dolphins have only thrown on first down 40.74% of the time. Personally, I do not think that is going about things the best way. If Henne is his most successful on first down, why not let him throw it a bit more than he has been?
I understand that the coaching staff wishes to protect Henne a good deal, especially as these have been his first four starts in the NFL, but in reality running the ball 59.26% of the time is not exactly going to fool a defense. And, given Miami’s lack of a true receiving threat on the outside – shown by a growing number of 1 wide receiver sets – it allows for a defense to creep closer to the line of scrimmage. Predictability also allows the defense to guess what is coming, and to shut it down, essentially forcing the very situation the Dolphins’ offense wishes to avoid; 2nd and long.
I am not suggesting that the Dolphins simply throw caution to the wind and begin to throw the ball around on first down. But I do believe the coaching staff needs to become less predictable, whilst also playing into Henne’s strengths. It is often said that first down is the best down the throw on as the defense has to defend both the run and the pass to equal degrees. If that axiom is true, then the Dolphins are not maximizing their opportunities to be successful with a young quarterback.
The Dolphins offensive tendencies could prove to be somewhat of a blessing if the coaching staff decides to incorporate play action into the equation. The defense will likely be already looking for the run, so using play action to help create space for the receivers whilst appearing to play into the Dolphins’ tendency to run on first down could make for some big plays; something Tony Sparano has been harping on.
HC Tony Sparano
The use of play action, if successful will also help to open up the ground game, which has become increasingly vulnerable thanks to the Dolphins’ lack of a reliable passing game the last two weeks. Teams are now daring the Miami offense to throw the ball to beat them, and the Dolphins need to exploit that trend.
The Dolphins offense also could use to throw the ball from a formation that includes more than one receiver as a means to help the young quarterback as well. Henne should begin to have the game slow down soon as he is on the cusp of when quarterbacks take their next step forward.
If this is indeed happening on some level, the Dolphins need to give Henne more options. This is not to say the Henne will all of sudden see everything the way it should be, but rather that he should see certain plays slow down more than they have in the past; making it easier to make the right play.
The Patriots defense is not impregnable, and can be beaten, so why not let Henne have more opportunities to throw the ball and make plays. Henne does not have to throw the ball 20 yards down the field on first down to be effective, although medium length passes off of play action would be a huge benefit. Henne could throw more screen passes, something else the Dolphins could use to run more of on offense as defenses have been blitzing the young quarterback. There are ways to be more effective in the passing game, I just would like the coaching staff to change their tendencies a bit to try and take advantage of them.
3). The offense must become more consistent in the second half.
Over Chad Henne’s 4 games as a starter, the Miami offense has had trouble playing consistently in the second half; eating up the clock and helping the defense. Going into the New Orleans Saints game, the Miami defense was seeing an average of 53.4 plays per game over their first 5 games. In the last two games against the New York Jets and the afore mentioned Saints, the Miami defense has seen 147 plays, or an average of 73.5 plays per game. That is an increase of 37.35% over their previous average play totals.
In essence, the defense has seen 20 more plays per game over the last two games. Most defense see a drastic decline in their effectiveness the further they go past seeing 60 plays in a game. If the Miami Dolphins defense continues to see this many plays, there will be lingering effects as the team moves forward. The Miami defense cannot afford to be exposed to 70+ plays again this weekend or in my mind the cumulative results could be disastrous.
Firstly, if the defense sees 70 plays in this week’s game, they will have basically played and extra game’s worth of snaps in a three week period. The defense was averaging 53.4 plays per game, and has seen an increase of 20.1 plays per game for the last two weeks; making 40.2 extra plays. If they see 70 plays this weekend – which gives a difference of 16.6 plays over their previous average, the defense will have played 58.8 extra plays over a 3 game stretch.
Secondly, it exposes an already somewhat suspect pass defense to more chances it must put down. The Miami front does not feature young pass rushers as both Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are over 30. Taylor has produced at an acceptable level, having garnered 20 tackles with 5.5 sacks thus far, but Porter, as mentioned has only 12 tackles and 2.5 sacks whilst registering only .5 sack in the last 4 games. The more these players are on the field, the more they are fatigued and incapable of rushing the passer.
From my vantage point, Porter has been controlled far too often this season. He does not disengage quickly, and struggles to clear his torso when trying to redirect inside on his pass rush. Nor does he look to be as explosive as he has done in the past; however, it is still unclear if he is troubled by a nagging hamstring injury that forced him to miss two games earlier in the season. Regardless, Porter needs to begin making plays, or he needs to give way to other members of the defense in an effort to bring pressure on the quarterback.
OLB Matt Roth
Another issue is that Miami does not have consistent backup pass rushers. Cameron Wake has thus far been stymied since his showing against the Buffalo Bills. Matt Roth has only just now returned to the lineup, and did not look to be in great shape in his first game action, and quite frankly has never been a great pass rusher. Roth is relentless when fully healthy, and will make plays through sheer effort, toughness and strength.
The Miami defense has been on the field for 18:47 of the second half against the Saints, and 16:57 of the second half against the New York Jets. Over the last two games, the defense has faced a time deficit of 11:28 for both games combined. You could say, that the defense has played an extra quarter of football.
Anyone who has watched the last two games saw a considerable difference in the level of play by the Miami defense as the game progressed. Now, looking at the numbers there may be a correlation. The Miami defense will break down this weekend if it is forced to see the field repeatedly for decent stretches of time. Some of the burden falls on the defense to get itself off of the field, but the Miami offense needs to produce in order let the defense rest for lengthy periods.
Now, it must be mentioned that part of the reason the defense was on the field so much in the second half against the Jets was Ted Ginn’s returns for touchdowns, and a Davone Bess fumble. Ginn’s plays were fantastic, there is no doubt, but they do put the defense back on the field quickly rather than the offense mounting a drive that uses up more 25 seconds. I am in no way complaining, just stating a fact; the defense is right back on the field following a return. Jason Taylor also contributed a return for a touchdown; again putting the defense back on the field. Bess’ fumble was huge, as the defense had just forced a punt, and the error gave the Jets the ball deep in Miami territory.
WR Ted Ginn, Jr.
Regardless of every circumstance, the Dolphins offense must do a better job of maintaining possession and using up some clock in an effort to help the defense. I believe the defense can play well in the first half, as they will still be somewhat fresh, but if the offense fails to produce credible drives, the defense may collapse in the second half.
Something of note from the previous key is that Miami’s third quarter offense has allowed Chad Henne an average of 2.25 passing attempts on first down versus 3.75 rushing attempts. So, 62.5% of the time, Miami is running the ball on first down in the third quarter over Chad Henne’s four starts. I have already mentioned that Chad Henne needs to be given more opportunities on first down to throw the ball, and maybe that trend should continue in the second half as well.
Again though, I am not calling for Henne to throw the ball all over the field, but giving him more than one receiver in a route, or using play action certainly could not hurt. The Dolphins’ receivers do not strike fear into anyone, but that does not mean they cannot make gains of 5 yards if given the chance. The Dolphins do not need to throw the ball deep every time, although it should be mixed in to some degree but if they can get 2-3 more plays of 5 yards on first down through the air, it could help to open the defensive front up, which should in turn help the running game.
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